基于可能性视角水闸AHP—概率分析方法  

AHP—probability method of reservoir evaluation factors based on probability perspective

作　　者：张武平 

机构地区：[1]景德镇市水利水电工程设计室,江西景德镇333000

出　　处：《水科学与工程技术》2017年第6期8-10,共3页Water Sciences and Engineering Technology

摘　　要：为了剖析出影响水闸运行的各个因素,基于溯源思路,对影响因素进行了梳理,从安全性、适用性和耐久性方面得到3大类19项影响因素。建立了一种基于发生可能性视角的AHP—概率分析方法,并以鲇鱼山闸为例进行发生可能性分析,得出该水闸管理维护能力发生可能性较大,地基承载力(R7)发生的可能性较小,耐久性指标的发生概率较高,鲇鱼山闸的综合评价值为0.622等结论,该值可作为该水闸的定量得分,该方法也为其他相关水库提供参考。In order to analyze the factors that affect the operation of the sluice, the influence factors are sorted out based on the trace of origin, and three major and 19 influencing factors are obtained from the aspects of safety, applicability and durability. To establish a AHP-probability method based on probability perspective, taking Nianyushan sluice as an example, analysis of the occurrence possibility. The conclusion is that： the possibility of sluice management maintenance capacity is large, the bearing capacity of the foundation （R7） is less likely to occur, the occurrence probability of durability index is high, the comprehensive evaluation of Nianyushan gate value is 0.622. This value can he used as a quantitative score for the sluice, the method can also provide reference for other reservoirs.

关 键 词：鲇鱼山水库 水闸 层次分析法 概率 安全性 适用性 耐久性 

分 类 号：TV66[水利工程—水利水电工程]