厄尔尼诺事件及其对我国夏季降水量时空分布的影响  

El Nino event and its impact on the spatial and temporal distribution of summer precipitation in China

作　　者：方国华[1] 丁紫玉 闻昕[1,2] 林榕杰[1] FANG Guohua;DING Ziyu;WEN Xin;LIN Rongjie(College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038 , China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水利水电学院,江苏南京210098 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038

出　　处：《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》2017年第6期481-488,共8页Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51609061);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD);江苏省水利科技项目(2015084)

摘　　要：为了探讨厄尔尼诺与我国夏季降水的关系,分析Nino指数的变化趋势和突变情况,解析1961—2016年历次厄尔尼诺事件的类型和强度特征,对我国月降水距平进行EOF分解,研究我国降水变率的空间分布和年际变化规律。重点研究2014—2016年厄尔尼诺事件的特征及其对2016年我国夏季月降水量时空分布的影响。研究表明:Nino指数和我国降水变率在厄尔尼诺事件发生期间波动较大,厄尔尼诺事件将影响我国次年夏季降水量的时空分布。其中,东部型厄尔尼诺事件峰期过后我国夏季降水呈现长江流域增加、淮河以北大部分地区及东南沿海地区减少的特征;中部型厄尔尼诺事件峰期过后,夏季降水呈现黄河流域及华南地区增加、长江流域减少的特征;混合型厄尔尼诺事件丰期过后降水增加的地区主要为黄河流域。To explore the relationship between EI Nino event and the summer precipitation,the variation trend and mutation of Nino index are firstly examined to identify the types and intensity characteristics of El Nino events during 1961-2016. The spatial distribution and inter-annual variation pattern of precipitation are then examined by analyzing the monthly precipitation anomaly using EOF method. Emphasis is placed on the analysis of the characteristics of El Nino events during 2014-2016,and their impacts on the temporal-spatial distribution of the summer precipitation in 2016. The study shows that both Nino index and the precipitation variability fluctuate significantly during the period of EI Nino event,and the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation in the next summer is largely influenced by the event. Specifically,the summer precipitation appears to increase in Yangtze River basin and decrease across most northern Huai River Basin and the southeast coastal areas after Eastern EI Nino＇s heyday. For Central EI Nino,the summer precipitation appears to decrease in Yangtze River Basin and increase in Yellow River Basin and Southern China. For Mixed EI Nino,the increase in summer precipitation is detected across the Yellow River Basin.

关 键 词：厄尔尼诺事件 Nino指数 降水量时空分布 夏季降水 M-K检验 

分 类 号：TV211.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]