基于系统动力学的风电技术产业化发展路径优化研究  

Path optimization of wind power technology industrialization development based on system dynamics

作　　者：梁慧超[1,2] 崔婷[1] 孙丽云 

机构地区：[1]河北工业大学经济管理学院,天津300401 [2]北京高校中国特色社会主义理论研究协同创新中心(北京工业大学),北京100124

出　　处：《天津职业技术师范大学学报》2017年第4期57-62,65,共7页Journal of Tianjin University of Technology and Education

基　　金：河北省社会科学基金资助项目(HB16YJ029)

摘　　要：以风电技术产业化发展为研究对象,以优化风电技术产业化发展路径为目标,运用系统动力学理论,分析了风电技术产业化发展过程,建立了风电技术产业化发展模型,分别从资金投入、人力投入、市场需求和技术标准四个方面及其综合影响的角度设计了五个优化风电技术产业化发展路径的方案并进行了模拟。结果表明:综合方案对风电技术产业化发展的促进作用最为显著,其次是资金投入,再次是市场需求,而同等幅度的人力投入的增加与技术标准的变动对风电技术产业化发展的作用则相对薄弱。In order to improve the development path of wind power technology industrialization, this paper analyzed the development process of the wind power technology industrialization, established a model of wind power technology in- dustrialization development in China and designed five plans based on the Dynamic System Method. The five plans were integrated program, increasing capital input and market demand, improving the number of employees, technological standards of wind power industry and their comprehensive impacts. The paper simulated the five plans by using the wind power technology industrialization development model. The result shows that the integrated program is the most ef- fective plan. Increasing capital input and market demand can also promote the development of wind power technology industrialization dramatically. By comparison, the effect of improving the number of employees and technological stan- dards is not prominent.

关 键 词：风电产业 技术产业化 路径优化 系统动力学模型 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]