基于改进可变模糊方法的区域水资源承载力预警模型  

Early-warning Model of Regional Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based on Improved Variable Fuzzy Method

作　　者：史毅超 唐德善[1] 孟令爽 刘菁[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水利水电学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2018年第1期36-39,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2012CB417006);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目

摘　　要：为提升区域水资源管理水平,建立了区域水资源承载力预警模型。该模型运用改进的可变模糊方法分析现状警度,耦合GM(1,1)模型预测发展趋势,克服了常规方法的主观性。以天津市为例,构建水资源承载力预警指标体系,进而采用该模型进行预警分析。结果表明,该模型预警结果与实际相符;天津市水资源承载力目前处于中度预警状态,未来几年将向轻警发展,但仍要重视水资源的管理与保护。In order to improve the level of water resources management, an early-warning model of regional water re- sources carrying capacity was established. In this model, improved variable fuzzy method was used to analyze the current warning degree and the GM （1,1） model was applied to predict the development trend, which overcomes the subjectivity of the traditional methods. Taking Tianjin City as the research objects, the index system of early-warning for water re- sources carrying capacity was constructed. And then the model was used for early-warning analysis. It shows that the early-warning results are consistent with the actual situation. The carrying capacity of water resources in Tianjin is cur- rently in a moderate warning state. In the next few years, it will develop into a mild state, but water resources manage- ment and protection should still be emphasized.

关 键 词：水资源承载力 预警模型 可变模糊方法 GM(1 1)模型 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]