我国未来人口长期变动情景——基于稳定人口模型的考察  

China's Long-Term Demographic Changes in Future:An Investigation Based on the Stable Population Model

作　　者：陈蓉 左学金 王美凤 

机构地区：[1]上海市卫生和健康发展研究中心(上海市医学科学技术情报研究所) [2]上海社会科学院

出　　处：《社会科学》2018年第1期55-63,共9页Journal of Social Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目"公平;活力与可持续--老龄社会的经济特征及支持体系研究"(项目编号:71490734)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：作为研究人口长期变动趋势的主要理论模型,稳定人口模型对考察我国未来人口变动情景具有重要参考价值。基于稳定人口模型,通过对稳定生育率水平的三种假设以及实现稳定生育率的三种不同时间跨度设定,组合为我国未来人口变动的九种情景,分别模拟我国人口从现状过渡至稳定人口的长期变动趋势发现:我国人口变动存在强大的惯性,从当前的非稳定人口转变为稳定人口需要80年左右的时间;除了将生育水平长期保持在更替水平可以实现人口零增长以外,任何低于更替水平的生育率终将会导致人口规模不断萎缩与年龄结构高度老化;生育水平高低在长期内对人口年龄结构的影响是决定性的。Stable population is the population status in which the birth rate, mortality rate and age structure remain unchanged. As a major theoretical model to study the long--term demo- graphic trend, stable population model is of great reference value for investigating future population changes in China. Based on the stable population model, this paper simulates the long--term process to achieve stable population in China by nine different fertility assumptions. The findings show that it takes about 80 years for the transition from non--stable population to stable popula- tion because of population momentum. Only when the fertility level remains at the replacement level for a long time, zero population growth can be achieved. If fertility rate keeps below the replacement level, the population size will be shrinking irreversibly and population structure will be ageing progressively in the future. In addition, fertility level has decisive impacts on the age structure of the population in the long term.

关 键 词：稳定人口 生育水平 人口年龄结构 人口规模 

分 类 号：O921[理学]