辽宁省2013-2015年麻疹空间流行病学特征分析  

Spatial Analysis on Measles in Liaoning Province,China,2013-2015

作　　者：安晓慧[1] 韩悦[2] 高志峰[3] 姚文清[4] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁省疾病预防控制中心免疫规划所,沈阳110005 [2]辽宁省疾病预防控制中心科教科,沈阳110005 [3]辽宁省动物疫病预防控制中心业务办公室,沈阳110164 [4]辽宁省疾病预防控制中心,沈阳110005

出　　处：《中国医科大学学报》2018年第1期62-66,共5页Journal of China Medical University

摘　　要：目的分析辽宁省2013年至2015年麻疹疫情的空间分布规律,为识别麻疹重点防控区域提供参考。方法使用GeoD a 1.4.6软件,运用探索性空间分析方法分析辽宁省麻疹疫情空间分布特征。结果频数分布分析显示,2013年至2015年辽宁省105个县区麻疹疫情均呈显著的正偏态分布。全局趋势分析表明,2013年和2015年麻疹疫情呈平稳分布趋势;2014年呈东、北部高发趋势。全局Moran指数分别为0.294 5、0.391 9、0.147 7;2013年至2015年辽宁省县区级麻疹疫情均呈正空间自相关。全局G系数分别为0.015 9、0.012 0、0.013 5,空间分布模式均为"高-高"聚集。局部空间自相关分析识别出5个疫情核心区和25个热点县区,主要分布在沈阳及沈阳周边的阜新、铁岭、抚顺、本溪、辽阳,西南部的盘锦、葫芦岛。结论辽宁省2013年至2015年麻疹发病存在空间聚集性。空间流行病学方法为麻疹的流行病学研究提供新的思路。Objective To explore the spatial distribution of measles from 2013 through 2015 in Liaoning province, China and to provide references for measles control and prevention. Methods The GeoDa 1.4.6 program was used to conduct exploratory spatial data analysis to identify the spatial distribution characteristics and pattern of measles in Liaoning province. Results The frequency analysis showed that the measles epidemic situation appeared to have significant positive skewing within 105 counties of Liaoning province in each year from 2013 through 2015. The global trend analysis indicated a balanced trend in 2013 and 2015,and that the high incidence measles areas were located in the eastern and northern provincial regions in 2014. The global Moran＇s I was 0.294 5,0.391 9, and 0.147 7, and general G values were 0.015 9,0.012 0,and 0.013 5,revealing a positive spatial autocorrelation and a high-high aggregation model for each year between 2013 and 2015. The local spatial autocorrelation analysis recognized 5 core areas and 25 hot-spot cmmties with a high incidence of the measles epidemic, mainly distributed in Shenyang, Fuxin, Tieling, Fushun, Benxi, Liaoyang, Panjin, and Huludao. Con- clusion Measles cases were clustered geographically in Liaoning province from 2013 through 2015. Spatial epidemiology methods may offer insights for the epidemiologic study of measles.

关 键 词：麻疹 全局空间自相关 局部空间自相关 探索性空间数据分析 

分 类 号：R511.1[医药卫生—内科学]