城市用地扩张影响因素及其极限规模测算——以海口市为例  

The influence factors of urban land expansion and calculation of its utmost scale:a case study of Haikou city

作　　者：王湃[1] 郑迪 黄山[1] 

机构地区：[1]海南大学政治与公共管理学院,海南海口570228

出　　处：《山西农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2018年第2期44-50,共7页Journal of Shanxi Agricultural University:Social Science Edition

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(青年项目)(15CJY031);海南省哲学社会科学规划课题(HNSK(ZC)15-8);海南省高等学校科学研究项目(Hnky2015-7)

摘　　要：城市用地的扩张在为城市提供发展空间的同时也带来了许多土地利用问题,研究城市用地扩张影响因素并预测城市用地扩张极限规模对于分析城市用地扩张规律,制定各类规划等具有重要意义。研究利用海口市1995—2015年相关统计数据对海口市城市用地进行研究,运用灰色关联度法和逐步回归法分析海口市建成区扩张的影响因素,结果表明对海口建成区扩张起显著影响的两个因素是常住人口和二三产业比重,且二者均对海口市建成区用地扩张具有正向作用。通过建立的逐步回归模型和人均用地面积模型对海口市城市用地极限规模进行了预测并对两种预测结果进行综合比对分析,测算结果显示,海口市城市用地极限规模为235.13km^2。The expansion of urban land not only provides space for the development of city,but also produces various of land using problems.Studying the influence factors of urban land expansion and predicting the utmost scale of urban land expansion have an important influence on analyzing urban land expansion regulation and making kinds of planning.The research studies urban land of Haikou based on relevant statistics in 1995—2015 of Haikou,and analyses the influence factors of the expansion of the built-up area in Haikou by gray correlation method and stepwise regression method.The results show that the most important two factors are permanent resident population and the proportion of second and third industry,both of which have positive effect.The contrast analyzation on the prediction of urban land utmost scale of Haikou by the model of Stepwise regression mode and per capita land area shows that the urban land utmost scale of Haikou is 235.13 km^2.

关 键 词：城市用地扩张 影响因素 极限规模 海口市 

分 类 号：F293.2[经济管理—国民经济]