中国肉羊产业时空演变的特征分析  

Study on Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Mutton Sheep Industry in China

作　　者：丁存振 肖海峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2018年第1期58-64,共7页Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：农业部和财政部项目"国家绒毛用羊产业技术体系产业经济研究"(CARS-39-22)

摘　　要：采用Logistic模型、空间基尼系数、产业集中度指数、重心模型等对我国肉羊产业时空演变特征和趋势进行了分析,结果表明:我国肉羊产业在经历了1961-1990年的缓慢积累期、1991-2000年的加速成长期和2001-2010年的快速增长期后已经于2011年进入成熟稳定期;我国肉羊产业空间集聚态势明显,同时存在较大的区域集聚差异,且随时间推移不断波动;牧区的内蒙古、新疆和农区的山东、河北、四川等几省是我国肉羊产业主产区,近年来有向粮草资源丰富的东北地区集聚的态势,东南沿海二、三产业发达地区一直以来都是我国肉羊产业非主产区;肉羊产业生产呈现出向东和向北空间集聚的态势,但生产区域的调整强度不断下降。This paper analyzes temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of mutton sheep industry in China by using Logistic model,spatial Gini coefficient,industry concentration index,the center of gravity model and other methods.The result shows that China's sheep industry has experienced three periods:slow accumulation period between 1961-1990,accelerated growth period between1991-2000 and rapid growth period between 2001-2010.Mutton sheep industry has entered a mature and stable stage after 2011 in China.Mutton sheep industry agglomeration trend is obvious.There are many differences in regional agglomeration,which fluctuates over time.Inner Mongolia,Xinjiang,Shandong,Hebei,Sichuan,etc.are the main production area of mutton sheep industry.Developed regions of secondary or tertiary industry in southeastern coast are not the main production areas.Mutton sheep industry production has showed the tendency to gather in the eastern and northern part of China,but the adjusting intensity of the production areas is graually declining.

关 键 词：肉羊产业 时空演变 空间集聚 区域变迁 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济]