基于排序赋值方法的FAHP风险评估模型  

FAHP Risk Assessment Model Based on Ranking Assignment Method

作　　者：李红伟[1] 郭笑彤 陆键[2] 李素兰[3] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学土木与交通学院,南京210098 [2]同济大学交通学院,上海201804 [3]武汉理工大学交通学院,武汉430063

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（交通科学与工程版）》2017年第6期964-968,共5页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology（Transportation Science & Engineering）

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71501061);江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK20150821);湖北省交通科技项目(2016-13-1-3;2017-538-3-3)资助

摘　　要：为降低专家打分的主观性,更好地满足一致性检验,利用排序赋值法对模糊层次分析法(fuzzy analytical hierarchy process,FAHP)进行改进,在客观数据缺失时,得到灾害天气下大型桥梁运营风险等级.排序赋值法先对层次结构中的因素排序,再将最主要的因素赋值为10,影响最小的因素赋值为1,使用线性内插法给其它因素赋值.分析得出:风险贡献度从大到小依次为,天气等级、持续时间、交通流量、天气覆盖率、车型比例、标志标线可视度、天气种类、车头时距、标志标线清晰度和辨识度;排序赋值法因素越多,权值越准确.最后利用某大桥数据验证了改进模型的有效性.In order to reduce the subjectivity of expert scoring,to better meet the consistency test,uses the ranking assignment method to improve fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to get the risk level of large bridge operation in disaster weather in lack of objective data.Ranking assignment method ranks the factors in the hierarchy,and then the main factor is assigned to 10.The minimum factor is assigned to 1,and the linear interpolation method is used to assign the other factors.The conclusions are：（1）the order of factors from big to small in turn are weather grade,weather duration,traffic flow,weather coverage,model ratio,marking visibility,weather type,headway,marking clarity and identification.（2）Ranking assignment method is more objective,and the obtained weight is more accurate.The effectiveness of the improved model is verified by using some bridge data.

关 键 词：交通工程 风险评估 排序赋值 模糊层次分析 灾害天气 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]