基于动态灰色预测的交通事故损失预测  

Prediction of Traffic Accident Loss Based on Dynamic Grey Prediction

作　　者：杨书霞 胡艳[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学管理学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（信息与管理工程版）》2017年第6期674-678,共5页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology：Information & Management Engineering

基　　金：安全预警与应急联动技术湖北省协同创新中心开放课题基金项目(JD2015050502)

摘　　要：为了解我国未来的交通事故损失情况,提出运用灰色系统理论的方法对我国交通事故的财产损失进行预测。首先运用灰色关联分析找出与我国交通事故财产损失关系最密切的统计指标,即事故发生数;然后对交通事故财产损失和事故发生数两个指标采用动态GM(1,1)模型对其未来值进行预测。结果表明,尽管我国的交通事故损失和事故发生数在未来6年呈现下降趋势,但下降幅度不大,因此在交通安全方面还需要进一步强化管理,如加强机动车驾驶人员和交通管理部门对道路交通的安全意识,充分利用高科技技术等。In order to estimate the future traffic accident loss in China, the gray system theory is put forward to forecast the property loss of traffic accidents in China. Firstly, the gray relational analysis is used to find the most closely related indicator of the traffic accident which is the number of accidents. Then the dynamic GM （1, 1） model is used to predict the future value of the traffic accident loss and the number of accidents. The results show that although the traffic accident losses and the number of accidents in China will decline in the future, the decline is not significant, so the further management concerning to traffic safety is needed, such as strengthen the safety awareness of motor vehicle drivers and traffic management departments on the road traf-fic, make full use of high-tech technology.

关 键 词：交通事故 灰色系统理论 灰色关联分析 动态GM(1 1)模型 损失预测 

分 类 号：U491.3[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]