基于生态足迹模型的信贷平衡与风险研究  

Research on Credit Balance and Risk Based on Ecological Footprint Model

作　　者：阮湛洋 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行阳江市中心支行

出　　处：《财务与金融》2017年第6期1-10,16,共11页Accounting and Finance

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71603061)的资助

摘　　要：金融危机后,在信贷大规模投放的形势下,信贷供需的总量失衡与结构性失衡问题日渐凸显。改善信贷失衡,防范金融体系风险,已成为当前我国经济金融发展的重要课题。本文基于的生态足迹模型,创新提出信贷足迹的概念,构建了信贷足迹模型,测算不同地区、不同行业的信贷足迹(需求)和信贷承载力(供给),并对信贷盈余或赤字的状况进行了分析,得出当前我国信贷市场存在较为显著的结构性失衡问题。基于这一结论,本文从新的角度出发,指出了信贷供需失衡状态下金融体系存在的潜在风险,提出加强信贷供给侧结构性改革的建议,实施差异化的信贷资源配置,防范金融体系风险的政策建议。After the financial crisis, under the condition of large-scale credit, the imbalance between supply and demand of credit and structural imbalance have become increasingly prominent. Improving the credit imbalance and preventing the risk of the financial system has become an important issue for China＇s economic and financial development. Based on the ecological footprint model, this paper innovatively proposes the concept of credit footprint, builds a credit footprint model, estimates the credit footprint （demand） and credit carrying capacity （supply） in different regions and industries, and conducts the credit surplus or deficit status Analysis, and come to the conclusion that there is a more significant structural imbalances in the credit market in China. Based on this conclusion, this paper points out the potential risks of the financial system under the condition of credit supply and demand imbalance, proposes the suggestions of strengthening the structural reform of credit supply side, implements the pohcy of differentiated credit resources allocation and prevents the risk of the financial system from a new perspective.

关 键 词：信贷足迹 信贷平衡 信贷风险 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]