新疆经济可持续发展的动态演进分析——基于生态足迹模型  

Analysis on the Dynamic Evolution of the Sustainable Development of Economy in Xinjiang——Based on Ecological Footprint Model

作　　者：张娜[1] 牛翠萍[1] 

机构地区：[1]石河子大学经济与管理学院,新疆石河子832003

出　　处：《石河子大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2017年第6期11-18,共8页Journal of Shihezi University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"新一轮对口援疆政策效率测度及其提升路径研究"(71363046);教育部人文社科项目"新一轮对口援疆政策效率测度及其影响因素研究"(13YJC790198)

摘　　要：新疆经济可持续发展的测度是新疆资源开发利用及其经济研究领域的重要内容。利用生态足迹模型计算新疆2005—2015年的人均生态足迹、人均可利用生态承载力和人均生态赤字及万元GDP生态足迹强度,并用非参数局部多项式回归估计对经济可持续发展的动态演进进行分析。结果表明:新疆的生态足迹不断增大,生态承载力逐年降低,生态赤字越来越严重,生态状况并不乐观,经济发展的可持续性面临严峻挑战。基于此,该文提出了优化产业结构、开发新能源、提高全要素生产率及能源生态效率以降低生态足迹、保护并恢复生态承载力的对策建议,以促进新疆经济的可持续发展。The measure of sustainable economic development of Xinjiang is an important content in theresearch fields of resource exploitation and regional economy. This study aims to calculate the per capitaecological footprint, the per capita available ecological carrying capacity, and the per capita ecological deficit andmillion yuan GDP ecological footprint intensity in Xinjiang from 2005 to 2014 by using ecological footprintmodel, and to analyze the dynamic evolution characteristics of economic sustainable development by the use ofnon parametric local polynomial regression estimation. The results show that the ecological footprint of Xinjiangis increasing, the ecological carrying capacity is decreasing year by year, the ecological deficit is becoming moreand more serious, the ecological situation is not optimistic, and the sustainability of economic development isfacing severe challenges. Based on these, in order to promote the sustainable development of economy inXinjiang, some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to optimize the industrial structure, to developnew energy, and to improve the total factor productivity and energy efficiency, which can not only reduce theecological footprint, but also protect and restore the ecological carrying capacity.

关 键 词：新疆经济可持续发展 生态赤字 生态足迹模型 局部多项式回归估计 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]