基于物质流分析的区域水资源环境承载力与结构关联效应评价  

Material flow analysis-based evaluation of regional water resources environmental carrying capacity and structural correlation effect of its structure

作　　者：常玉苗[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]盐城师范学院商学院,江苏盐城224007 [2]江苏沿海开发研究院,江苏盐城224007

出　　处：《水利水电技术》2017年第12期34-40,共7页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(15BGL207);国家自然科学基金项目(U1204709);江苏省重点建设学科应用经济学资助

摘　　要：水资源环境承载力及结构关联效应分析是系统化研究水资源短缺与水环境污染问题的基础。采用系统化理论与物质流分析相结合方法,按照水要素在区域经济中流动全过程,将水资源开发利用划分为水资源投入、水资源开发、水资源利用、水污染治理和污水排放等环节,建立水资源环境承载力评价指标体系和水资源环境结构关联效应评价指标体系,利用灰色关联模型对水要素流动全过程的结构合理性进行评价。以江苏省为研究区进行分析评价,结果显示:在水资源投入阶段承载压力较大,结构关联中水资源开发严重依赖地表水;开发利用阶段水资源承载压力小,结构关联中地表水与生活用水关联度最高,地下水与农业用水关联度最高;在水污染治理阶段城镇污水投资承载压力大、城市污水处理承载压力小,工业废水投资承载压力小、工业污水处理承载压力大,结构关联中废水排放与工业废水处理关联度高、与废水治理投资关联度低;在污水排放阶段废水排放承载压力大、COD排放承载压力小,结构关联中COD和氨氮排放量均与生活污水排放关联度最高。With the method integrated with both the systematic theory and the method of material flow analysis,the development and utilization of water resources are divided into the links of water resources input,water resources development,water resources utilization,water pollution control,sewage discharge,etc. in accordance with the whole flow process of the water factor in the regional economy,and then both the evaluation index system for the water resources environmental bearing capacity and the evaluation index system for the correlative effect of the water resources environmental structure are established. On the basis of this,the structural reasonability of the whole flow process of the water factor is evaluated with the grey correlation model. By taking Jiangsu Province as the study area,the relevant analysis and evaluation are made,from which it is demonstrated that when the pressure on the bearing capacity is larger in the phase of the water resources input,the water resources development is relied heavily on the surface water in the structural correlation analysis; while when the pressure on the water resources bearing capacity is less in the development and utilization phase,the correlative degrees between the surface water and the domestic water as well as the groundwater and agricultural water are highest in the structural correlation analysis. During the phase of the water pollution control,the large the pressure on the bearing capacity of the investment for urban sewage treatment is,the less the pressure on the bearing capacity of the urban sewage treatment is to be,while the less the pressure on the investment for the industrial sewage treatment is,the heavier the pressure on the bearing capacity of the industrial sewage treatment is to be. In the structural correlation analysis,the correlative degree is high between sewage discharge and industrial sewage treatment and is low between sewage discharge and the investment for sewage control. In the sewage discharge phase,the large the pressure on the bearing

关 键 词：水资源环境 承载力 关联效应 物质流分析 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]