基于压力-状态-响应模型的长株潭城市群生态承载力安全预警研究  

SECURITY PREWARNING AND REGULATION OF ECOLOGICAL CARRYING CAPACITY OF CHANG-ZHU-TAN URBAN AGGLOMERATION BASED ON PRESS-STATE-RESPONSE MODEL

作　　者：朱玉林[1,2] 李明杰 顾荣华[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南林业科技大学经济学院,湖南长沙410004 [2]湖南省绿色发展研究院,湖南长沙410004 [3]广东财经大学华商学院,广东广州511300

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2017年第12期2057-2064,共8页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：湖南省教育厅重点项目"长株潭城市群生态承载力预警及调控研究"(14A154);湖南省哲学社会科学基金项目"湖南省自然系统生态赤字演变及绿色发展对策研究"(13YBA363);中南林业科技大学国家社科基金预研项目"基于生态承载力的湖南省农业绿色发展研究"(2016YY009)~~

摘　　要：在构建城市群生态承载力安全预警评价指标体系基础之上,通过数据的收集,利用灰色加权关联理论,计算了2006~2015年长株潭城市群生态承载力安全指数,并对各年份生态承载力安全警度进行了判定。计算结果显示:从总体来看,2006~2015年长株潭城市群生态承载力安全指数呈现出上升的趋势,安全警度由"高警"下降为"轻警";从压力、状态、响应3个子系统来看,安全指数同样呈现出上升的趋势,安全警度则由"高警"或"中警"下降为"轻警"。分析表明:近些年长株潭城市群"两型社会"试验区相关资源与环境政策的实施效果是明显的。但我们也发现,试验区统计年份安全指数数值都在0.700 0之下,与"无警"(0.850 0)状态距之甚远,长株潭"两型社会"建设依然任重而道远。Based on the index system of the security prewarning and regulation of urban agglomeration ecological carrying capacity,this paper calculates the security index of the ecological carrying capacity of Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration from 2006 to 2015,and predicates the security warning degree of each year by collecting the relevant raw data and using the grey weighted relevance theory. The calculation result indicates： the ecological carrying capacity security index of the Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration shows an upward tendency from the overall view. The security warning degree decreases from ＂high level＂to ＂low level＂. While from the subsystems of pressure,status and response,the security index also shows an increasing tendency. The security warning degree decreases from ＂high level＂or ＂middle level＂to ＂low level＂. The analysis shows the implementation effect of the resource and environment policies of ＂two-oriented society ＂experimental area of Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration is evident. However,it is also found that the security indexes of experimental area are below0. 700 0,which are far away from the ＂no alarm ＂（0. 850 0） level. There is still a long way to go in the construction of ＂two-oriented society＂of Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration.

关 键 词：生态承载力 压力-状态-响应模型 安全预警 长株潭城市群 

分 类 号：F293[经济管理—国民经济]