考虑政策、运力、价格因素的电煤供需形势预测  

Forecast for the Supply-demand Situation of Thermal Coal Considering Policy,Transport Capacity and Price

作　　者：陈梦 别芳玫 周小兵 

机构地区：[1]国网湖北省电力公司经济技术研究院,湖北武汉430077

出　　处：《湖北电力》2017年第6期49-54,共6页Hubei Electric Power

摘　　要：2016年以来,随着煤炭去产能步伐加快,短期供应减少,煤炭价格快速上升,同时受铁路运力阶段性紧张、火电厂存煤积极性不高等因素影响,华中地区部分火电厂库存急剧下降,电煤供需形势一度由宽松转向偏紧。为避免再次出现电煤供需紧张的局面,深入分析了宏观政策、运力、价格对电煤供需形势的影响,并对2017年"迎峰度夏"期间华中地区的供煤、耗煤、存煤情况进行了定量预测,最后对保障全网电煤供应提出了对策和措施。Since 2016,with the acceleration of cutting coal overcapacity and the decrease of short-term supply,the coal price has risen rapidly.Meanwhile,affected by the periodical shortage of railway transport capacity and the heat-engine plant's insufficient desire for coal storage,the thermal coal stocks of some heat-engine plants in central China declined sharply.The supply-demand situation of the thermal coal was tense for a time.In order to avoid the tense situation of thermal coal supply-demand again,the influences of macro policy,transport capacity and price on the supply-demand of thermal coal are analyzed in this article.Also the supply,consumption and storage of thermal coal in central China during the summer of 2017 are quantitatively forecasted.Finally,some measures to guarantee the thermal coal supply in central China are put forward in this article.

关 键 词：电煤 政策 运力 价格 

分 类 号：F426.21[经济管理—产业经济] TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]