基于FANP的室外公共场所人群踩踏风险评价  

An Assessment of Human Stampede Risk in Outdoor Public Places Based on FANP

作　　者：刘思施[1] 谢科范[1] 曹青[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学管理学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《工业工程》2017年第6期16-21,共6页Industrial Engineering Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点资助项目(15AGL021)

摘　　要：为客观评价室外公共场所人群踩踏风险,积极采取预警预控措施,本文基于文献分析和事件梳理,识别了室外公共场所人群踩踏事件的触发因素,运用模糊网络评价方法(FANP)构建了室外公共场所的人群踩踏风险评价模型,利用Supper Decision软件计算出超矩阵、加权超矩阵和极限矩阵,并得到了模型的综合权重。研究结果表明,室外公共场所人群踩踏事件的关键风险因素排序依次是设备状况O_1、场地障碍O_2和人群拥挤密度I_1,其综合权重值分别为0.128、0.116、0.108。通过对室外公共场所人群踩踏风险因素的综合权重排序和分析,对人群踩踏风险进行了分级。最后,基于实地拍摄的视频进行了算例分析,得出了人群踩踏风险的数值。To assess the human stampede risk in outdoor public places, the triggering factors of human stampede aresummarized with theoretical analysis and case study. The Fuzzy Analytic Network Process （FANP） approach is employed toassess human stampede risk in outdoor public places. Based on the questionnaires and experts’ assessment, the super matrix,weighted super matrix and limit matrix are computed by the Super Decision （SD） software. As is shown in the results of themodel, the facility factor （O1）, field obstacle （O2） and crowd density （I1） show significant effect on the human stampederisk, the comprehensive evaluation values of them are respectively 0.128, 0.116, and 0.108. An overall risk rating of humanstampede risk is then obtained from calculating and reordering the comprehensive evaluation values. Then, based oncalculation sample from real place photographed video, the risk metric of human stampede is obtained.

关 键 词：人群踩踏 风险评价 模糊网络分析 风险分级 

分 类 号：C93[经济管理—管理学]