考虑市场前景的运载火箭研制GERT网络TCQ优化方法  

An Optimization Method of the TCQ in a Rocket Development Project by Using GERT Network and Considering Market Prospect

作　　者：曹帅[1] 朱建军[1] 林松[1,2] 于亮[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京210016 [2]中国运载火箭技术研究院,北京100076

出　　处：《工业工程》2017年第6期65-76,共12页Industrial Engineering Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71601002;71171112;71502073);国家社会科学基金重点资助项目(14AZD049);教育部人文社科研究青年基金资助项目(16YJC630077);安徽省自然科学基金资助项目(1708085MG168)

摘　　要：针对考虑市场前景的运载火箭多阶段研制项目管理优化问题,以火箭研制流程为基础,建立了多阶段GERT网络模型,用图示的方式描述项目活动,探析了火箭研制过程中时间、费用和质量之间相互作用关系(TCQ)并以此拓展了GERT网络传统解析算法;针对市场前景多可能性,结合多阶段GERT网络模型和前景理论构建了多阶段综合前景价值最大化的优化模型;最后以某火箭研制项目为例,详细描述该方法的具体实施步骤。研究结果表明通过对火箭研制项目中TCQ的优化调整能给项目活动带来更大的前景价值。Aiming at management optimization of a multistage development project and considering market prospect for alaunch vehicle, a multistage GERT network model is established based on the process of rocket development. The projectactivity is described in graphical way, and extending the traditional analytic algorithm of GERT network by analyzing theinteraction between time, cost and quality in the process of rocket development （TCQ）. In view of the possibility of marketprospect, a multistage optimization model of comprehensive prospect value is constructed by combining the multistageGERT network model and Prospect theory. Finally, taking a rocket development project as an example, the specificimplementation steps of the method are described and the result shows that the optimization adjustment of TCQ in the rocketdevelopment project can bring greater prospect value to the project activities than before.

关 键 词：运载火箭 GERT(图示评审技术)网络 TCQ优化 前景理论 

分 类 号：C93[经济管理—管理学]