2017年经济景气形势监测、分析与预测  

The Analysis and Forecasting of Economic Situations of 2017～2018

作　　者：陈磊[1,2] 孟勇刚[2] 孙晨童 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学经济计量分析与预测研究中心 [2]东北财经大学经济学院

出　　处：《科技促进发展》2017年第11期I0002-I0002,849-856,共9页Science & Technology for Development

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(编号:15ZDA011):新常态下我国宏观经济监测和预测研究;负责人:陈磊;辽宁特聘教授项目:经济波动和通货膨胀的监测预警研究;负责人:陈磊

摘　　要：我国月度经济景气波动从2015年12月开始进入新一轮短周期,出现稳中向好态势。本轮短周期的峰顶转折点在2017年3～4月出现是大概率事件。2017年4月以来的经济景气下滑可能会持续到2018年2季度,但下降幅度不会太大。经济运行有望在新的景气水平继续保持大体平稳的运行态势。预测2017年GDP增长率将达到6.8%左右,CPI上涨率为1.6%左右,新常态下经济和物价周期波动的"微波化"特征将更为鲜明。The Chinese economy has entered a new short-term cycle since December of 2015 and showed a stable performance with good momentum for growth. The peak of this business cycle is high likely occurred in March or April of 2017. The contraction of economic growth could continue to the second quarter of 2018. We predicate that the GDP growth rate of 2017 and 2018 would reach about 6.8% and 6.6% respectively, and meanwhile the annual inflation rate would be about 1.6% and 2% respectively. Economic and inflation cycle would be also featured with wavelet in the ＂new normal＂ stage.

关 键 词：经济周期 景气分析 监测预警 经济预测 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]