2017年我国消费需求总体形势及未来走势判断  

The General Situation and Future Trend of China s Consumer Demand in 2017

作　　者：徐汉玉 田青[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学,大连116025

出　　处：《科技促进发展》2017年第11期863-870,共8页Science & Technology for Development

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(编号:15ZDA011):新常态下我国宏观经济监测和预测研究;负责人:陈磊;国家社科基金后期资助项目(编号:17FJY006):中国老年群体消费结构;需求特征和行为决策研究;负责人:田青

摘　　要：2017年1～9月,我国社会消费品零售总额增速稳定,网上零售增势强劲;农村社会消费品零售总额增速依然高于城镇,差距不再延续2016年缩小的趋势转而逐步扩大;服务消费快速发展,高端餐饮需求加大,养老服务开始进入快速建设期,老年消费群体活跃,消费习惯不再保守,消费结构逐步升级;文化产业消费繁荣活跃,再创历史新高;绿色共享消费成为市场热点;留学规模持续扩大,但"回到中国"已成趋势;汽车消费态势平稳,石油及制品类消费走出低迷;居民收入平稳增长,城乡居民可支配收入增速差异减小;消费需求持续平稳;文化消费、服务消费有望持续较高增长;房地产销售增速持续下降,房地产开发投资增速冲高动能不足;居民消费满意指数趋势向好,对未来预期消费也充满信心。政府应坚持大力发展服务业,继续深化推进供给侧改革,引导海外消费回流,提高低收入群体收入水平,规范文化娱乐产业发展。From January to September 2017, Chinas total retail sales of social consumer goods stable growth, online retail growth momentum; Rural social consumer goods retail sales growth rate is still higher than the town, the gap is no longer continue to narrow the trend in 2016 to gradually expand; Rapid development of service consumption, high-end catering needs to increase, pension services began to enter the rapid construction period, the elderly consumer groups active, consumption habits are no longer conservative, gradually upgrade the consumption structure; Cultural industry consumption boom and active, another record high; Green shared consumption has become a hot market; The scale of study continues to expand, but＂return to China＂has become a trend; Automobile consumption situation is stable, oil and product consumption out of the doldrums; Residents＇ income grew steadily, and the difference of disposable income growth between urban and rural residents was reduced; Consumer demand continued to be stable; Cultural consumption, service consumption is expected to continue high growth; Real estate sales growth continued to decline, real estate development investment growth momentum is insufficient; Residents of consumer satisfaction index trend for the better, the future is expected to consume full of confidence. The government should adhere to vigorously develop the service industry, continue to deepen the supply side reform, guide overseas consumption back to china, improve the income level of low-income groups, regulate the development of cultural and entertainment industry.

关 键 词：消费需求 影响因素 政策建议 

分 类 号：F126.1[经济管理—世界经济]