基于灰色理论的我国农民旅游市场预测研究  

Prediction on the Scale of Rural Resident's Tourism Market Based on Gary Theory

作　　者：刘婷婷 李九全[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安外国语大学旅游学院.人文地理研究所,西安710128

出　　处：《河南科学》2017年第12期2062-2069,共8页Henan Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41271179)

摘　　要：选取我国农民为研究主体,以历年数据为基础,利用灰色理论建立灰色模型,依次对2017—2025年我国农民国内游客人次、旅游总花费以及人均旅游花费进行定量预测,并对上述3个灰色模型的精度予以检验.结果显示,预测模型全部通过残差检验、后验差检验和关联度检验,表示拟合效果理想.(1)从出游人次来看,预计到2020年,我国农民国内出游人次将突破16亿人次,进入全民旅游时代.(2)从旅游总花费来看,我国农民国内旅游总花费将于2019年突破10 000亿元,并于2025年突破20 000亿元.(3)从人均旅游花费来看,我国农民国内旅游人均花费将由1995年的61.5元增加至2025年的1 188.5元.Based on historical data,this paper takes rural residents as the research subject,using grey theory toestablish the grey model in order to predict the China's rural residents' total number of domestic tourists,ruralresidents domestic tourism total cost and rural residents' domestic tourism per capita cost in 2017-2025. And theaccuracy of the three gray models are tested. With the model construction and model checking,we found that:all threegray prediction model are through the residual test,the differential test and correlation test. It means that the fittingeffect is ideal,with a certain reference value.(1) For China's rural residents' total number of domestic touristsprediction model,the number of domestic tourists in rural areas is increased rapidly,and it will reach 1.6 billionpeople in 2020. Combined with China's basic national conditions in 2020 the China will reach the era of nationaltourism.(2) For rural residents domestic tourism total cost model,it is estimated that by 2019,the total domestictourism cost of rural residents in China will exceeds one trillion yuan,and it will reach about two trillion yuan by 2025.(3)For rural residents' domestic tourism per capita cost model,the per capita cost of rural residents to domestic tourismwill reach 1 188.5 yuan in 2025 comparied with 61.5 yuan in 1995.

关 键 词：农民 旅游 灰色理论 市场规模 预测 

分 类 号：F592[经济管理—旅游管理]