基于GM(1,1)修正模型预测离退休人口  

Prediction of Retired Population Based on Modified GM(1,1) Model

作　　者：周舟 范君晖[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海工程技术大学管理学院,上海201620

出　　处：《上海工程技术大学学报》2017年第4期376-378,共3页Journal of Shanghai University of Engineering Science

基　　金：上海市教委科研创新重点资助项目(14ZZ157)

摘　　要：离退休人口与社会经济发展息息相关,正确地预测离退休人口对相关政策的制定具有指导作用.基于灰色理论GM(1,1)模型,利用最小二乘法确定模型中的残差,通过对残差进行修正,构建GM(1,1)修正模型.以我国2010—2014年的离退休人口数据为基础,运用修正模型进行预测.研究发现GM(1,1)修正模型预测精度高,具有实际应用价值.Retired population is closely related to the social and economic development,and correctly prediction of retired population has a certain guiding effect on the formulation of related policies.Based on GM（1,1）model,the least squares was used to determine the residual error,the residual was corrected and the modified GM（1,1）model was built.Using the retired population data of 2010—2014 in China,the modified model was used to predict.Research shows that modified GM（1,1）model has high prediction accuracy and practical application value.

关 键 词：离退休人口 灰色预测 修正GM(1 1)模型 误差 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]