西安市可利用降水量特征分析及预测  

Analyzing and Predicting the Applicable Precipitation in Xi'an City

作　　者：王海科[1,2] 李亚斌 钱会[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]长安大学环境科学与工程学院,西安710054 [2]旱区地下水与生态效应教育部重点试验室,西安710054

出　　处：《灌溉排水学报》2017年第12期118-122,共5页Journal of Irrigation and Drainage

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201301084)

摘　　要：根据西安市降雨数据,计算和分析了可利用降雨量特征,并采用线性分析方法、Mann-Kendall法和有序聚类法对西安市1951—2014年可利用降水量进行了趋势和突变分析,建立了西安市可利用降水量加权马尔科夫链预测模型。结果表明,西安市可利用降水量年际变化明显,呈多年丰枯交替变化,但整体为减小趋势,可利用降水量年内主要随季节变化;突变分析表明西安市可利用降水量在1957年、1966年、1974年和1983年发生突变;经过实际值与预测值的对比验证,表明采用滑动平均加权马尔科夫链模型对西安市可利用降水量预测误差较小,并对西安市2015年和2016年可利用降水量进行了预测,预测值分别为100.04 mm和123.43 mm。Using the meteorological data measured from 1951 to 2015 at the Xi＇an station, we analyzed and forecasted the variation of applicable precipitation in this area, using linear analysis method, Mann-Kendall method and orderly clustering method. We analyzed the trend and mutation change of rainfall and established a model to predict the applicable precipitation in Xi＇ an City using the weighted Markov chain. The results showed that the annual available precipitation varied, and the available precipitation years mainly changed with seasons, and the overall trend was reduced. Mutation analysis showed that the actual mutation of available precipitation occurred in 1957, 1966, 1974 and 1983. The comparison between actual value and predictive value showed that the model was capable of forecasting the available precipitation with small errors. The available precipitation in 2015 and 2016 was forecasted, and the values were 100.04 mm and 123.43 mm respectively.

关 键 词：降水量 MANN-KENDALL法 加权马尔科夫链 趋势分析 西安市 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]