湖南地区加权平均温度的影响因素分析及建模  

Influence Analysis of Multi-factor on Weighted Average Temperature and Its Modeling in Hunan Region

作　　者：李黎 樊奕茜 王亮 田莹 江婷 宋越 易金花 

机构地区：[1]苏州科技大学环境科学与工程学院,江苏省苏州市科锐路1号215009 [2]湖南科技大学资源环境与安全工程学院,湖南省湘潭市桃园路411201 [3]湖南省气象台,长沙市芙蓉南路四段196号410118

出　　处：《大地测量与地球动力学》2018年第1期48-52,共5页Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41304029);湖南省自然科学基金(2016JJ3061);湖南科技大学煤炭资源清洁利用与矿山环境保护湖南省重点实验室开放基金(E21705);湖南省气象局预报员专项(AQKJ16C019);湖南省气象局重点项目(XQKJ16A002)~~

摘　　要：利用湖南地区长沙、怀化、郴州3个探空站连续3a(2012~2014年)的观测数据,以数值积分法计算的大气加权平均温度(Tm)作为参考值,分析Tm与地面气温Ts、水汽压es及大气压Ps之间的相关性,并基于最小二乘原理建立湖南地区多因子Tm模型。研究结果表明,Tm与地面温度Ts和水汽压es呈正相关性,与大气压Ps呈负相关;Bevis模型的Tm偏差主要分布在0~4K之间,存在一定的系统偏差,而基于Ts单因子的Tm模型偏差主要分布在-2~3K之间;双因子与三因子精度相当,但均优于单因子模型。总体而言,基于地面气温Ts和水汽压es的双因子Tm模型的精度优于基于Ts的单因子模型,更优于Bevis模型,适用于湖南地区的GPS气象研究及业务应用。In this study, 3 consecutive years of radiosonde observation data since 2012 from three sites of Changsha, Huaihua and Chenzhou in Hunan province has been used to establish multi-factor T,. lo- cal models based on the numerical integration and least squares principle. The results showed that Tm has a positive correlation with ground temperature （Ts） and water vapor pressure （es） , while it has a negative correlation with atmospheric pressure （Ps）. Compared with the bias of single-factor local Tm model （-2-3 K）, the bias of Bevis model is mainly in 0-4 K, which means that Bevis model exists a sys- tem deviation in Hunan region. The research also reveals that the two-factor model and three-factor model have an approximate accuracy, but they are all better than single-factor model. Summarily, the two-factor local T,, model is better than single-factor model which is better the Bevis model at the same time. Therefore, it can be applied to researches and applications of GPS meteorology in Hunan region.

关 键 词：加权平均温度 GPS气象学 探空资料 可降水量 

分 类 号：P228[天文地球—大地测量学与测量工程]