网络舆情传播阶段精细化建模与仿真研究  

The Research on Propagation Phase Accurate Model and Simulation of Network Public Opinion

作　　者：兰月新[1] 夏一雪[1] 刘冰月[2] 刘茉[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民武装警察部队学院,河北廊坊065000 [2]天津交通职业学院,天津300132

出　　处：《现代情报》2018年第1期76-86,共11页Journal of Modern Information

基　　金：河北省社会科学基金项目"面向突发事件的政务微媒体影响力提升策略研究"(项目编号:HB17XW025)

摘　　要：[目的 /意义]根据信息生命周期理论,研究网络舆情传播的周期性规律,构建网络舆情传播阶段的精细化模型,使政府在面对复杂多变的网络舆情态势时,能够准确把握舆情发展演化趋势。[方法 /过程]通过案例定性分析网络舆情传播的周期性规律,构建网络舆情传播的Logistic模型,根据模型分析得出网络舆情传播的4个关键时间节点以及5个传播阶段,然后基于MATLAB开展模型仿真,研究了3个参数对网络舆情传播的影响程度并应用实例验证了模型。[结论 /结果]经过理论建模和实证分析得出本文构建的网络舆情传播阶段精细化模型是可行的,以上理论研究可为政府准确把握网络舆情演化规律,制定网络舆情治理对策提供参考依据。[Purpose/Significance] According to the theory of information lifecycle,the paper studied the periodic trends of network public opinion propagation,put forward a propagation phase accurate model of network public opinion,and helped the government to be able to accurately grasp the evolution trend in the face of complex and changeable situation of the network public opinion. [Method/Process] Through the qualitative analysis of the periodic trends of network public opinion,it put forward the logistic model of network public opinion propagation,analyzed four key time nodes and five stages of propagation according to the model,and then made model simulation based on MATLAB to research the impact of three parameters on network public opinion propagation and verify the model by examples. [Result/Conclusion] Through theoretical modeling and empirical analysis,confirmed the feasibility of propagation phase accurate model in this paper.The above theory research would contribute to accurately grasp the evolution of network public opinion,and provided references of network public opinion countermeasures for government.

关 键 词：大数据 网络舆情 传播阶段 LOGISTIC 数学模型 仿真 

分 类 号：C912.6[经济管理]