基于融合权重-POT的拱坝变形监控模型  

Dam Deformation Warning Model Based on Combination Weight-Peaks over Threshold

作　　者：黄勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]内江职业技术学院,四川内江641100

出　　处：《人民黄河》2018年第1期145-149,共5页Yellow River

摘　　要：引入极值理论,提出了基于融合权重的POT混凝土拱坝变形监控模型。对于多测点原型观测数据,以融合权重法确定其综合权重,以信息熵理论构建多测点的变形熵,通过POT模型设置一定的阈值,选取变形熵的超限值作为建模对象,利用广义帕累托分布拟合超限数据子样,以失效概率给出大坝变形监控指标。将该方法用于雅砻江流域某混凝土拱坝,工程实例表明,该模型可以得出更加合理的结果,更能反映工程实际。A model based on combination weight method and POT model had been established to determine the warming index of a concrete dam. The combination weight method was applied to determine the comprehensive index weight and then the deformation entropy of multimeasured point was established based on entropy theory. The POT model in extreme value theory was introduced to implement the early-warning index estimation,according to the threshold,the analysis samples were obtained from the deformation entropy data exceeding the threshold,which satisfied the generalized Pareto distribution. The generalized Pareto distribution function of the data exceeding the threshold was determined. The early-warning index could be calculated by the combination of above distribution function and the dam failure probability. Finally,a concrete arch dam in Yalong River was used as the modeling object. The results indicate that the obtained early-warning index can describe objectively the actual status of dam engineering.

关 键 词：POT 融合权重 混凝土坝 监控模型 

分 类 号：TV698.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]