国际视角下我国进口的决定因素研究  

An Analysis on the Determinants of the Imports of China from the International Perspective

作　　者：薛金奇 段娣桃 

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《经济问题》2018年第1期20-26,共7页On Economic Problems

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(10BGL075)

摘　　要：采用2002年1月-2017年5月面板数据模型,对美国、欧盟、日本三个国家和地区的实际有效汇率、失业率、CPI和我国对其进口总额之间的关系进行实证分析。结果表明:就总量而言,各地区实际有效汇率和我国对其进口总额呈负相关,各地区失业率、CPI和我国对其进口总额呈正相关。就地区而言,各地区汇率的提高有利于我国对其的进口;大部分地区失业率的提高引发了收入减少效应,进而促进了我国对其的进口。其政策含义在于,应控制人民币汇率,监测其他国家和地区失业率,以适时调节我国相关行业的进口平衡。Based on the panel model of January 2002-May 2017,this paper makes an empirical analysis on the relationship between the real effective exchange rate,the unemployment rate,CPI and the total import volume of four regions in the United States,Europe,Hong Kong and japan. The results show that： in terms of the total amount,the real effective exchange rate is negatively correlated with the total amount of imports; the unemployment rate and CPI are positively correlated with the total amount of China imports. As far as the region is concerned,the increase of the exchange rate of each region is positively correlated with the import of China; the reduction of the income caused by the increase of the unemployment rate in most of the regions,and thus promoted the total import volume of China. The policy implication is that we can control the RMB exchange rate and monitor the foreign unemployment rate to adjust the balance of import of the relevant industries in China.

关 键 词：实际有效汇率 失业率 进口总额 

分 类 号：F124.1[经济管理—世界经济]