对油气行业发展不确定性的几点思考  

Several thoughts of middle & long-term trend for oil and gas industry

作　　者：钱兴坤[1] 石卫[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油集团经济技术研究院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2017年第12期1-8,共8页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：分析了油气行业发展存在的各种不确定性因素,认为石油需求峰值没有想象的那样快速到来,但限产保价也要适度,否则将催生替代能源快速成长;未来10~15年是天然气发展的关键期,如果届时没有得到规模发展,一旦新能源应用实现突破,天然气将被替代;虽然美国退出《巴黎协定》,煤炭发电逆袭天然气发电,但清洁能源代替高碳能源的趋势难以改变;地区联盟的解体与重构,围绕中东的地缘政治格局变化正在发生;人工智能迅猛发展,共享经济如火如荼,在能源低碳化发展趋势下,油气行业必须勇于创新。Based on several uncertainties in the oil and gas industry, the paper considers that the peak oil demand is not expected to come fast; however, moderation is the key for price limit, otherwise, alternative energy will be forced to grow rapidly. The next 10 to 15 years will be a critical period for natural gas development. If there is no large-scale development, natural gas will be replaced once the new energy application is got breakthroughs. Although the United States withdrew from the Paris Agreement and natural gas generation has been counterattacked by coal power generation, the trend towards cleaner energy alternatives from high carbon energy is hard to change; disintegration and reconstruction of regional alliances show that the geopolitical landscape is changing around the Middle East; artificial intelligence is booming and the sharing economy is in full swing. All above indicate that the oil and gas industry should positively innovate under the low-carbon development trend.

关 键 词：新能源 天然气 地缘政治 新技术 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济]