基于DSGE模型的财政刺激政策效果分析——以“四万亿投资”为例  

A Probe into the Effects of Fiscal Policy Stimulus Using a DSGE Model——The Case of "4Trillion Economic Stimulus Package"

作　　者：梁斌[1] 周晔馨[2] 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古大学经济管理学院 [2]北京师范大学经济与资源管理研究院

出　　处：《经济学报》2017年第4期28-60,共33页China Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"资源价格跳跃波动;创造性破坏与资源地区经济增长"(71563035);国家自然科学基金面上项目"社会资本与偏好对环境保护行为的影响研究--基于随机大样本的入户实验"(71773010);国家社科基金一般项目"我国专利制度;企业专利战略与经济技术发展研究"(12BJL041)的支持

摘　　要：研究应对经济危机的凯恩斯主义大规模财政刺激方案的作用机制和影响,对市场化进程中的中国尤为重要。在带有投资专有技术进步的动态随机一般均衡模型下,本文区分了"四万亿投资"中的3种不同支出,分析了它们对宏观经济的作用机制并估计了其政策效果。研究发现:基础投资类政府支出具有最大的乘数效应,但会抑制私人投资;消费类政府支出会提升私人投资,但会对私人消费产生挤出效应;而设备资本型投资则既可以带动整体经济的恢复,又可以鼓励私人消费和投资。对整体政策效果的模拟还发现,"四万亿投资"会使经济体的公共部门不断膨胀、私人部门不断萎缩。"四万亿投资"在正式实施时进行了微调,这在一定程度上减轻了对私人部门的挤出效应,同时产生了更大的挤入效应。本文为政府改进财政刺激计划中的投资结构提供了较为稳健的理论和实证依据。The launch of large-scale Keynesian fiscal stimulus packages among the major economies following the subprime crisis has triggered a hot debate about the effectiveness of fiscal policies. The debate is particularly important for China which is currently in the process of marketization. To evaluate the ＂4 trillion Stimulus Package＂ of China, we estimate a DSGE model with investment specific technology progress for China and differentiate the ＂4 trillion stimulus package＂ into three different types; government purchases, investments in structures capitals and investments in equipment capitals. We show that government purchases will have a crowding-out effect on the private consumption; Government investments in structures capital will increase the total output in the short term, but have a crowding-out in the private consumption and investment; Government investments in equipment capital will increase the total output and also have a crowding-in in the private consumption and investment in the long term. We also estimate the overall effect of the ＂4 trillion stimulus package＂ that the package combined will increase the total output in the short term, but bring the economy into the situation that the public sector continues to expand while the private sector shrinks. We also investigate the effect of the adjustment of the ＂4 trillion stimulus package＂ and the results show that the adjustment to some extent alleviates the crowding-out effect of the ＂4 trillion stimulus package＂ on the private sector, and the increased proportion of government investments in equipment capital bring a small crowding-in effect on the private sector. In summary, this article provides a more robust theoretical and empirical basis for the government to improve the investment structure of future fiscal stimulus plans.

关 键 词：动态随机一般均衡 财政刺激方案 投资专有技术进步 结构调整 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F812.0