集中供暖对中国空气污染影响的实证研究  

Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Central Heating on Air Pollution in China

作　　者：李金珂[1] 曹静[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学经济管理学院经济系

出　　处：《经济学报》2017年第4期138-150,共13页China Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71173130和71422013);清华大学自主科研计划的资助

摘　　要：近年来关于集中供暖对空气污染和健康影响的话题备受关注,同时不断有人呼吁南方也推出集中供暖,因此精确估计集中供暖对中国大气环境的影响至关重要。本文利用全国230个城市的空气污染和气象数据,采用断点回归的方法,研究集中供暖对多种空气污染物浓度的影响。研究结果发现:1)集中供暖的开始直接导致多种空气污染物浓度显著上升,其中PM2.5、PM10、SO_2、NO_2以及CO分别上升14.148μg/m^3、15.788μg/m^3、18.626μg/m^3、9.863μg/m^3和0.221mg/m^3,分别为非供暖期均值的26.79%、14.73%、74.10%、30.45%和20.85%,该结果均在5%水平上显著;2)集中供暖的结束使得空气污染物浓度平缓降低,但未带来显著的非连续变化;3)在改变带宽以及拟合方法的情况下估计结果也较为稳健。实证结果表明,中国的集中供暖显著加剧了空气污染水平,造成中国空气污染的首要污染物PM2.5浓度在供暖开始后增加将近三成,SO_2浓度增加超过70%。因此在优化集中供暖相关政策时,应综合考虑其环境成本。The effect of central heating on air pollution and health draws much attention recently, and it is hotly discussed whether central heating should also be established in the southern part of China. So it is important to accurately estimate the environmental cost of central heating. Using national wide data, and by exploiting regression discontinuity approach, we examine the effect of central heating on different air pollutant concentrations. Our empirical results show that： 1. The beginning of heating leads to significant increase of PM2.5, PM10, SOz, NOz, CO and O3 by 14. 148μg/m^3, 15. 788μg/m^3, 18. 626μg/m^3, 9. 863μg/m^3 and 0. 221mg/m^3 , which is 26.79%,14.73%,74.10%,30.45% and 20.85% of the average level of non-heating season, and all the results are significant at 5% level; 2. The ending of heating leads to continuous decline in air pollutants concentrations, but we didn＇t observe abrupt change; 3. Our results are robust when we change fitting methods or control variables. Our findings suggest that central heating significantly aggravates air pollution in China, and PM2.5, which is the primary pollutant of China＇s haze, almost increases by 30% after heating begins, and SOz increases by over 70%. So the government should take into account the environmental cost when optimizing the policy.

关 键 词：集中供暖 空气污染 断点回归 PM2.5 

分 类 号：F299.24[经济管理—国民经济] TU995[建筑科学—供热、供燃气、通风及空调工程] X51[建筑科学—市政工程]