2017年大豆市场形势分析与2018年展望  

Soybean Market in 2017 and Its Prospect for 2018

作　　者：殷瑞锋[1] 徐雪高[2] 张振[3] 

机构地区：[1]农业部信息中心,北京100125 [2]江苏省农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,江苏南京210014 [3]农业部农村经济研究中心,北京100810

出　　处：《农业展望》2017年第12期4-7,11,共5页Agricultural Outlook

摘　　要：受玉米面积调减、大豆生产者补贴等政策影响,2017年全国大豆播种面积增加至819.4万hm2,较上年增13.8%;2017年主产区大豆生长期天气状况良好,全国大豆单产较上年提升,且大豆品质也好于上年;估计中国大豆总产量1 489万t,较上年增15.1%。2017年国内大豆价格高于上年,受全球大豆连年增产、库存高企影响,国际大豆价格弱势运行,大豆国内外价差较上年扩大。受畜禽养殖业蛋白饲料消费需求增加拉动,2017年大豆进口量估计超过9 500万t。展望2018年,预计全球大豆供应充裕,国际大豆价格将主要在天气影响下弱势震荡,国内大豆种植面积将受后期玉米大豆比价变化影响。Under the effects of maize acreage reduction and soybean producer subsidy pohcy, Oomestlc soybean acreage increased to 8 194 thousand hectares in 2017, increased by 13.8 percent over the previous year. In 2017, the weather of the main soybean producing areas was good, and the soybean yield per hectare and quality improved over the previous year. It was estimated that the 2017 national soybean production would reach 14.89 million tons, increased by 15.1 percent over the previous year. In 2017, domestic soybean price increased, while the international soybean price was low for the increasing global production and high inventory stock, and then led the price gap of soybean at home and abroad to expand compared to the previous year. Driven by increasing demand for livestock and poultry protein feed, it was estimated that China＇s soybean imports would increase to 95 million tons in 2017. Looking forward to 2018, the global soybean supply is expected to be abundant. The international soybean price will mainly fluctuate slightly under the influence of weather. The domestic soybean acreage will be affected by the price-ratio of maize and soybean.

关 键 词：大豆 播种面积 产量 价格 国际市场 展望 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]