基于证据推理和前景理论的区间多属性决策方法  

Multi-attribute decision making method with interval certainty factor based on evidential reasoning and prospect theory

作　　者：靳留乾[1] 方新[2] 徐扬[3] 

机构地区：[1]重庆邮电大学经济管理学院,重庆400065 [2]重庆工商大学商务策划学院,重庆400067 [3]西南交通大学四川省系统可信性自动验证工程实验室,四川成都610031

出　　处：《模糊系统与数学》2017年第6期124-131,共8页Fuzzy Systems and Mathematics

基　　金：重庆市社会科学规划项目博士项目(2016BS082)

摘　　要：针对属性值为区间确定因子结构的多属性决策问题,结合决策者的行为特征,提出了基于证据推理和前景理论的区间多属性决策方法。首先,根据前景理论给出各方案在各属性下的区间前景值。然后,根据区间确定因子规则库推理,得到各方案的合成前景值。最后,根据基于TOPSIS的区间数排序方法对合成前景值进行排序,根据排序结果选择可行方案。文章通过算例说明所提方法具有实用性和有效性。In this paper, a method for interval multi-attribute decision making under uncertainty is proposed, the uncertainty is represented by interval certainty factor structure. Firstly, the interval prospect value for each alternative on each attribute is calculated based on the prospect theory. Secondly, the combined prospect value of each alternative is given according to interval certainty rule base inference method using evidential reasoning. Then a ranking of alternatives can be determined using the combined prospect values with the ranking method which is based on TOPSIS. Finally, an illustration example is used to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed method.

关 键 词：区间确定因子 多属性决策 证据推理 前景理论 

分 类 号：O141.1[理学—数学]