安徽省绿色经济增长时空变化及影响因素研究  

A Study on the Spatial-temporal Change and Influential Factors of Green Economic Growth in Anhui Province

作　　者：郑丽琳[1] 汪雷 戴炜 

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学管理科学与工程学院,安徽合肥230001 [2]安徽财经大学中国合作社研究院,安徽蚌埠230030 [3]安徽省统计局,安徽合肥230001

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2018年第1期18-26,共9页East China Economic Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(14CTJ006);安徽省自然科学基金青年项目(1408085QG142);安徽省高校优秀青年人才支持计划重点项目(gxyq ZD2017046)

摘　　要：绿色经济增长是实现可持续发展的重要保障。针对现有绿色GDP核算中无法用市场价值衡量资源环境成本的缺陷,借助能值分析(EMA)统一核算量纲,计算能值—货币价值实现对自然资源、能源损耗与环境退化定价,进而测度绿色GDP总量。文章以安徽省为研究区域,估算2011-2015年16个地级市主要能值指标及绿色经济增长规模,分析其时空变化特征,并利用空间滞后面板模型考察其关键因素及空间溢出效应。结果表明:2011-2015年,安徽省各地绿色GDP人均值显著提高,但占传统GDP比值多数城市小幅下降,且空间发展不平衡;各地经济绿色增长存在显著的外溢效应,投资、消费、进出口、产业结构、能源消耗、环境保护等变量是影响地区绿色增长的关键因素。Green economic growth is an important guarantee to achieve a sustainable development. In view of the defect of theexisting green GDP accounting,which is impossible to measure the cost of resources and environment with market value,thepaper applies energy theory(EMA) to unify the accounting dimension,and calculates the energy dollar value to realize the pric-ing of natural resources,energy consumption and environmental degradation. Moreover,the paper measures the total amount ofgreen GDP. Taking Anhui province as the research area,the paper estimates the main energy indexes and the value of greenGDP of 16 prefecture-level cities from 2011 to 2015,analyzes the temporal-spatial change characteristics,and then investi-gates the key factors and the spatial spillover effects by the spatial lag panel model. The results show that: The per capita greenGDP in 16 prefecture-level cities of Anhui province has a significant increase from 2011 to 2015,but the ratio of green GDPto the traditional GDP declines slightly in most cities,and the spatial development is not balanced;There are significant spill-over effects on green economic growth among those prefecture-level cities. Investment,consumption,import and export,indus-trial structure,energy consumption,environmental protection and other variables are key factors affecting green growth in theregion.

关 键 词：能值分析 绿色国内生产总值 空间面板模型 安徽省 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]