全球变暖背景下极端降水变化率与气温的响应关系  

Response of global warming to extreme precipitation increase over China

作　　者：章杰[1] 鱼京善[1] 来文立[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学水科学研究院,北京100875

出　　处：《北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2017年第6期722-726,共5页Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science)

基　　金："十三五"国家重点研发计划重点专项基金资助项目(2016YFC0401308);"十二五"科技支撑计划基金资助项目(2013BAB05B04);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目

摘　　要：以中国整体为研究区,基于1960—2013年520个气象站逐日降水和气温数据,选取极端降水变化率(α)和饱和水汽压变化率(β)2个指标,定量分析了极端降水与全球变暖之间的内在联系.结果表明:全球变暖背景下我国整体上极端降水呈现增加的趋势,α和β分别为6.4%·℃-1和9.3%·℃-1,且α更接近理论值(约7%·℃-1),β与平均气温存在指数定量化关系.在此基础上,根据平均气温的不同将我国划分为9个对照组,进一步分析其空间差异,结果表明:α和β在空间上存在显著的正相关关系(r=0.63),具体表现为平均气温较高的地区,α和β值也较大.证明了饱和水汽压随温度的变化率可以从大尺度上解释极端降水增加的空间变化特征.The whole of China was selected as the study area in this study. Data of precipitation and temperature from 1960-2013 were used to analyze correlation between potential precipitation （saturation vapour pressure） and extreme precipitation with global warming. Change rate of saturated vapor pressure （β） and change rate of extreme precipitation （α） were found to be 9.3 %· ℃-1 and 6.4 % · ℃ -1 respectively. Variation rate of extreme precipitation was found to be close to theoretical value （about 7%· ℃-1 ）. An exponential relationship was established between β and mean temperature. Nine control groups were divided from 520 stations over China according to variations in annual temperature. Significant positive correlation between a and β （r=0.63） was established. The warmer group was found to have both higher α and β. Large scale spatial variations in extreme precipitation could be explained by variations in saturated vapor pressure at different temperatures.

关 键 词：全球变暖 极端降水 饱和水汽压 

分 类 号：P423.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P426.6