产业结构与劳动份额的统一性研究——基于要素替代弹性视角的理论模型解释  

Study on the Unity of Industrial Structure and Labor Share:A Theoretical Explanation Based on Factors' Alternative Elasticity

作　　者：龚敏[1] 辛明辉 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学宏观经济研究中心

出　　处：《吉林大学社会科学学报》2018年第1期60-73,共14页Jilin University Journal Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(17JJD790014);教育部哲学社会科学重大课题攻关项目(16JZD016);国家社会科学基金青年项目(16CJL011)

摘　　要：通过构建两部门动态随机一般均衡模型,分析在要素替代弹性影响下产业结构和劳动份额的变化规律。研究发现,对应"工业化—去工业化—产业结构稳定"三个产业结构阶段,劳动份额有"先降—后升—再降"的变化规律,具体表现为:1)要素替代弹性的产业间差异可使劳动力由农业向工业、由工业向服务业流动,产业结构转型效应又进一步影响劳动份额,这可以解释我国20世纪90年代开始的劳动份额下降和2007年以后的劳动份额上升现象。2)要素替代弹性的增长容易引起资本替代劳动,这可以解释发达国家在产业结构稳定后的劳动份额下降现象。目前要提高我国劳动份额,应在推动服务业发展的同时,通过增加劳动力供给、控制房地产业过热发展等措施,减弱资本对劳动的过度替代。This paper establishes a two-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to analyze the lawof industrial structure transformation and the trend in labor share change. The result shows that labor share in our country has the trend of ‘decline-increase-decline'corresponding to the industrial structure stage of "industrialization-deindustrialization-stable industrial structure". The specific performance is that: 1) Factors' alternative elasticity is different between departments,which can cause the flowof labor from agriculture to industry,then from industry to service. The transformation effect of industrial structure will further affect the change of labor share,which can explain the decline of labor share that began to emerge in the 1990 s and the increase of labor share after 2007. 2) The growth of factors' alternative elasticity easily leads to excessive substitution of capital for labor,which can explain the decline of labor share after the industrial structure is relatively stable. Therefore,in order to improve the overall labor share in China,we should promote the development of the service industry,as well as reduce the capital's excessive substitution of labor by increasing the labor supply and controlling the overheating development of real estate industry.

关 键 词：要素替代弹性 产业结构 劳动份额 两部门动态随机一般均衡模型 

分 类 号：F121.3[经济管理—世界经济] F249.2