贸易保护对全球投资与经济增长的影响  

The Impact of Trade Protection on Global Investment and Economic Growth

作　　者：王宇 王铮 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大学 [2]中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院

出　　处：《经济与管理研究》2018年第2期31-41,共11页Research on Economics and Management

基　　金：中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院研究项目“全球地缘政治竞争格局与中国创新发展”(Y501141S03)作者感谢匿名审稿人的评审意见.

摘　　要：本文在全球治理模型的基础上,模拟分析美国以及世界各主要国家和地区对进出口产品均提高关税后对经济增长的影响。模拟结果显示,美国有针对性地增加产品关税对美国经济增长并不有利,其贸易保护政策可能难以持续,而如果世界各主要国家和地区对进出口产品均提高关税,将使得印度以及低收入发展中国家的经济增长受到较大负面影响。经济的发展受到需求推动和生产技术推动,主导贸易保护只会进一步加剧矛盾,世界经济的发展需要各个国家和地区的共同努力和协同促进。Based on the global governance model,this paper simulates and analyzes the impact of the United States and other major countries and regions on the economic growth after both the imports and exports tariffs are raised. Simulation results show that the United States targeted to increase product tariffs on the economic growth is not beneficial,and its trade protection policy may be difficult to sustain. Besides,if all the major countries and regions in the world raise their tariffs on imports and exports,the economic growth in India and other low-income developing countries will be greatly adversely affected. Since economic development is driven by demand and production technology,leading trade protection will only further aggravate the contradictions. Therefore,the development of the world economy requires the joint efforts and collaboration of all countries and regions in the world.

关 键 词：全球治理 贸易保护 资本分配 世界贸易 经济增长 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易]