气象干旱监测指标在青海高原的适用性分析  

Applicability of Meteorological Drought Indices in Drought Monitoring in the Qinghai Plateau

作　　者：李红梅[1] 李林[2] 李万志[1] 

机构地区：[1]青海省气候中心,青海西宁810001 [2]青海省气象科学研究所,青海西宁810001

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2018年第1期114-121,共8页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY(QX)201506001);国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0501903)资助

摘　　要：基于1986—2013年青海高原114个干旱个例和1981—2015年逐月、四季和年SPI指数、PA指数、K指数和MCI指数,通过对比逐年、四季不同等级干旱出现频率和实际干旱的吻合情况,评估不同干旱监测指数对典型干旱发展过程的刻画能力,主要得出以下结论：（1）SPI指数和K指数对总干旱发生频率的年代际变化具有很好的监测效果,但SPI对不同等级干旱的监测能力最强,K指数次之,PA指数、MCI指数对干旱年代际变化的监测能力较差。（2）SPI指数和K指数对春旱和夏旱的监测效果很好,对秋、冬季的干旱监测效果不理想,PA指数和MCI指数对四季干旱的监测结果有较大偏差。（3）SPI能很好地监测出干旱的发生区域和干旱的程度,K指数和PA指数监测的干旱程度有偏差,而MCI指数对干旱范围和程度均有很大的偏差。（4）SPI指数和K指数的监测结果符合干旱发生、发展过程,对干旱发生、发展过程的刻画较为合理,而PA指数和MCI指数基本不能反映干旱的发生发展过程。（5）综合来看,SPI指数对春旱和夏季监测效果最优,K指数次之,PA指数和MCI指数最差。The 114 drought cases in the Qinghai Plateau during the period from 1986 to 2013 and the monthly,seasonal and annual SPI,PA,K and MCI indexes during the period from 1981 to 2015 were used in this study. The annual and seasonal consistencies of meteorological drought and actual drought were compared,and the characterization capabilities of different drought indexes for the typical drought events were evaluated. The main conclusions were as follows：（1） The SPI and K indexes could be used to well monitor the inter-decadal variation of the total occurring frequency of drought,the drought-monitoring capability of SPI was the highest,and then that of K,and that of PA and MCI was poor;（2） The SPI and K indexes could be used to well monitor the spring drought and summer drought,but the results of monitoring autumn drought and winter drought were unideal. The seasonal drought-monitoring results of PA and MCI indexes were significantly different;（3） The SPI index could be used to monitor the occurrence and degree of drought. There was some deviation in drought degree between the K and PA indexes,but a significant deviation in both the drought degree and extent based on MCI index;（4） The results based on SPI and K indexes were more reasonable to describe the process of drought,but those based on PA and MCI indexes did not accord with the drought occurrence and development;（5） Taken together,SPI index was optimal used to monitor spring drought and summer drought,then K index,and PA and MCI indexes were poor in monitoring the spring drought and summer drought.

关 键 词：气象干旱 SPI指数 PA指数 K指数 MCI指数 适用性评价 青海高原 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]