人民币事实汇率制度安排及其区域效应  

RMB De Facto Exchange Rate Regime Arrangement and Its Region Effect

作　　者：周阳 

机构地区：[1]济南大学商学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2018年第1期34-41,共8页World Economy Studies

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目"更富弹性的汇率制度下我国最优货币政策选择研究"(项目编号:16YJC790154);山东省社会科学规划研究项目"基于货币错配约束的人民币汇率市场化问题研究"(项目编号:14CJJJ11)资助

摘　　要：名义上公布的与实际执行的汇率机制往往存在着差异。文章对传统的分析各国货币篮子权重的方法进行扩展,并以此研究了人民币事实汇率制度安排及其区域效应。结果表明,我国货币篮子的构成已发生根本转变,欧元逐步和美元一起成为人民币货币篮子中最为主要的参考货币;人民币汇率弹性参数高度显著,这意味着我国对汇率走势的干预趋于减弱,特别是在加入SDR的背景下,对人民币的需求中至少有58%表现为汇率本身的变动。进一步研究发现,东亚国家已开始把人民币作为其"锚货币",主要的原因在于双方具有紧密的贸易关系,这为下一步人民币的区域化和国际化提供了思路。The exchange rate regimes that countries follow in practice often depart from the regimes that they announced.This paper extends the traditional method of analyzing a currency basket weight,and studies the RMB de facto exchange rate regime arrangement and its region effect.The results show that,our country's currency basket has changed completely.Euro gradually with US dollar have become the most important reference currencies in RMB currency basket.RMB exchange rate flexibility parameter is highly significant,indicateing that our country' s exchange rate intervention is weakened,especially in the context of entering SDR,at least 58% of the demand for RMB been presented as exchange rate changes itself.Further study finds that RMB has been used as the " anchor currency" of East Asian countries,mainly because of the close trade relationship.This provides an idea for RMB regionalization and internationalization in the next step.

关 键 词：人民币 事实汇率制度 区域效应 锚货币 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]