时空统计在食源性疾病中的应用  

The Applications of Space-time Statistical in the Field of Foodborne Disease

作　　者：卢丹丹 程维虎[1,3] 梅树江 肖革新[3] 

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学应用数理学院,北京100124 [2]深圳市疾病预防控制中心,广东深圳518055 [3]国家食品安全风险评估中心,北京100022

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2018年第1期25-35,共11页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

摘　　要：基于空间统计分析方法,探究其在食源性疾病中的应用,以肝吸虫病为例,利用空间自相关分析、时空扫描、空间面板分析探讨肝吸虫病的空间分布特征及影响因素,为肝吸虫病的有效防控提供科学的依据。研究结果表明：男性人群肝吸虫病发病率高于女性人群;发病最高的年龄组为50-59岁,主要以成年人感染为主;农民与农民工为主要的高发群体;肝吸虫病发病率具有空间正相关性,空间聚集主要表现为“高-高”聚集、“低-低”聚集、“低-高”聚集;3-10月份为肝吸虫病的发病时期,并且中部沿海地区为重灾区;平均温度与人均GDP为影响肝吸虫病发病率的潜在危险因素。Based on spatial statistical analysis method （SSAM）, the applications of SSAM in the field of foodborne disease were studied in this paper. With liver fluke disease as examples, using spatial autocorrelation analysis, space-time scanning, spatial panel model, a discussion about liver fluke disease distribution characteristics and influencing factors was taken, and give a scientific basis for prevention and control of liver fluke disease. The results show that： The infection rate of liver fluke disease among male is higher than that among female, the highest incidence age group is 40 to 59 years old, mainly in the elderly; farmers and migrant workers is a major high-risk group; the incidence of liver fluke disease with a positive correlation between spatial, spatial aggregation mainly for ＂high-high＂ gather, ＂low-low＂ gather, ＂Low-High＂ aggregation;liver fluke disease onset period is march to October, the outbreak area of liver fluke disease is located in the central. The main factor is the average temperature and GDP about the incidence of liver fluke disease.

关 键 词：肝吸虫病 空间自相关 时空扫描 空间面板模型 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学] O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]