科学实在论的稳健性论证  

On the Robustness Argument of Scientific Realism

作　　者：赵绪涛[1] 王伯鲁[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学哲学院,北京100872

出　　处：《自然辩证法研究》2018年第1期21-26,共6页Studies in Dialectics of Nature

摘　　要：稳健性论证运用新的术语重新表述了证据对假说的支持问题。得到不同形式证据支持的假说是可靠的,此时称假说是稳健的。稳健性论证是一种常见的科学实在论论证方式,它主张若假说是稳健的,则更可能是真的。斯德真格指出了一般稳健性论证的缺陷,并依据贝叶斯网理论给出了理想稳健性论证。理想稳健性论证并不能使人们确知假说是否为真,只具有提高人们对假说信任程度的认识论价值。Robustness argument reformulated the issue of confirming hypothesis by evidences with a recent term, Hypotheses are more reliable when they are confirmed by diverse kinds of evidence, then＇ hypotheses are robust. Robustness argument is a common way of argumentation in scientifle realism, it argues that if the hypothesis is robust, it is more likely to be true. Stegenga pointed out shortcomings of usual robustness argument, and propounded the ideal robustness argument based on Bayesian networks. However, idea] robustness argument cannot tell people a hypothesis is true or not; it only has the epistemological value of raising the degree of trust to the hypothesis.

关 键 词：稳健性 贝叶斯网 科学实在论 

分 类 号：N031[自然科学总论—科学技术哲学]