论长波  

On Economic Long Waves

作　　者：高峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院

出　　处：《政治经济学评论》2018年第1期60-105,共46页China Review of Political Economy

摘　　要：资本积累过程存在着长期波动。经济长波是西方非主流经济学研究的一个重要课题。对长波内在机制的不同解释形成了三种影响较大的长波理论。但如果把积累率的波动置于长波分析的中心地位,则长波并非决定于单一因素,而是取决于技术、制度、市场等多种因素的共同作用。第二次世界大战后资本主义世界经历了第四次扩张长波,并于20世纪70年代转入长波下降阶段。对于80年代是否出现了新的扩张长波,左派学者有不同看法。本文认为,从20世纪80年代到2007年,在信息技术革命、新自由主义制度调整和经济全球化的共同推动下,以美国为主的发达国家确实经历了一次新的扩张长波。而2008—2009年的金融—经济危机则开启了萧条长波的新阶段。对于当前世界资本主义经济在长期波动中所处的历史阶段及其特征,我们应有恰当的认识和积极的应对。There are long waves in the capital accumulation. Research on long waves are important in Western Heterodox Economics. Three main theories were formed based on the various comprehensions about the underlying mechanism of long wave. However,if we place fluctuation of accumulation rate in the center of the long wave analysis,then the dynamic of long wave is not determined by a single factor,but depends on the combination of technology,institution,market and other factors. Capitalist world experienced the expansion of the fourth long wave after the World War II and was switched to the decline phase in the 1970 s. Left-wing scholars have different viewpoints on whether there was a new expansion in 1980 s. This paper argues that,in the context of the information technological revolution,neoliberal adjustment and economic globalization,developed countries led by United States did experience an expansion from1980 s to 2007. The financial and economic crisis in 2008 to 2009 started a new phase of depression. We should comprehend the historical stage and its characteristics in the process of long wave of current global capitalist properly,and have positive measures correspondingly.

关 键 词：资本主义经济 长期波动 金融—经济危机 长期萧条 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易]