1689-1693年中国旱蝗群发性灾害研究  

Multi-disasters during 1689-1693 in China with a focus on drought and locust

作　　者：孔冬艳 李钢 王会娟 汪宇欣 

机构地区：[1]西北大学城市与环境学院,陕西省地表系统与环境承载力重点实验室,西安710127

出　　处：《兰州大学学报（自然科学版）》2017年第6期770-778,共9页Journal of Lanzhou University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(10YJCZH069);国家自然科学青年基金项目(41201190)

摘　　要：基于对历史文献资料的梳理,以旱蝗灾害为主线解析1689-1693年中国重大的群发性灾害事件,旨在复原灾害事件的时空演化过程,探讨其社会影响和气候背景.结果表明:时间上5种灾异各年县次均呈波动变化,旱、蝗变幅最大,1691年为旱蝗峰值年;旱蝗灾害的核心区域均位于黄淮海平原及其毗邻地区,二者都经历了始发期-发展期-严重期-衰退期-尾声期的完整周期;旱灾和蝗灾的热点区域均主要分布在河南、山西和陕西等地,而涝灾的热点区域不显著,且旱、蝗的高等级灾害有很强的空间对应关系;旱-蝗组合集中分布于黄淮海平原及其毗邻地区,而涝-蝗组合则零星分布,表明旱-蝗关系较涝-蝗关系紧密;旱、蝗频发与大发伴生饥荒和疫灾,导致米价上升和战争频发,体现了灾害的时空传递与承继;空间上饥荒要比旱蝗灾害分布更为广泛和分散,滞后性疫灾较饥荒更长;旱、蝗灾害的高发期对应中国华北和全球气候的相对温暖期和厄尔尼诺的盛行期.Based on historical records, drought and locust damage were focused to analyze the multi- disasters during 1689-1693 in China. The spatiotemporal evolution process of drought and locust was reconstructed and the social influence and climate background were disclosed. The results showed that the number of counties suffering from five kinds of disasters presented a fluctuation with time, the county number of drought and locust plague had a larger volatility than other kinds of disasters. The number of droughts and locust disasters peaked in 1691. The core areas of drought and locust disasters were in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain and the adjacent areas, which experienced a complete cycle： the initial period, developing period, severe period, recession period and the ending period. The hot spot areas of drought and locust disasters were mainly in Henan, Shanxi and Shaanxi Province. The distribution of high-grade drought and locust disasters were very consistent, while the hot spot areas of the flood was not significant. The overlay analysis showed that the drought and locust disasters were concentrated in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain and the adjacent areas, showing that locust plague had a closer relationship with drought than with flood. The drought and locust disasters were always associated with pestilence and famine, which led to an increasing war occurrence and rise of the price index of rice, reflecting a space-time transmission and inheritance. Famines were scattered and distributed more widely than drought and locust disasters and pestilence lagged longer than the famine. The high incidence of drought and locust disasters corresponded to a wanning process in the north of China and to a global and prevailing period of the E1 Nino.

关 键 词：群发性灾害 旱蝗灾害 时空演化 

分 类 号：K901.9[历史地理—人文地理学]