广东省燃气发电“十三五”需求预测及建议  

Demand Prediction and Development Suggestions of Guangdong Gas Power Generation in“the 13th Five Years”

作　　者：马政宇 戚爱华[2] 李林 张春燕 

机构地区：[1]中海石油气电集团研发中心,北京100028 [2]国家发展和改革委员会综合运输研究所,北京100081 [3]中国石油西南油气田公司工程项目造价中心,四川成都610051 [4]中国石油西南油气田公司物资分公司,四川成都610051

出　　处：《天然气技术与经济》2017年第6期44-47,共4页Natural Gas Technology and Economy

摘　　要：以广东省的电力供需形势为基础,综合使用产值用电单耗法、电力弹性系数法、负荷回归分析法,推算用电负荷需求,利用年最大负荷小时数来预测广东省用电最大负荷。结合广东省"十三五"电力供给规划,并假设在电力供不应求时,燃气电厂作为弥补供需缺口和调峰的唯一考虑,预测广东省燃气新增装机规模为(0.067~0.087)×10~8k W。Electricity consumption per unit output method,electricity elasticity coefficient method and load regression analysis method should be used comprehensively to calculate electricity load demand and maximum load hour is used to predict maximum power load in Guangdong based on power supply and demand trend in Guangdong.It is predicted that newly increased gas loading scale in Guangdong is(0.067~0.087)×10~8k W with gas power plant as the only consideration to make up for supply and demand gap and peak-shaving when it is assumed that power demand exceeds supply in combination with power supply plan of Guangdong in"the13th Five Years".

关 键 词：燃气发电 “十三五” 电量需求 最大负荷 装机规模预测 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济]