中国人均水产品消费量与人均GDP动态关系研究  

On the Dynamic Relationship Between Per Capita Consumption of Aquatic Products and Per Capita GDP in China

作　　者：岳冬冬[1] 李利冬[2] 于航盛 

机构地区：[1]中国水产科学研究院东海水产研究所/农业部远洋与极地渔业创新重点实验室,上海200090 [2]全国水产技术推广总站,中国水产学会,北京100125

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2017年第35期149-154,共6页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：农业部委托项目“水产品消费量与人均GDP关系研究”

摘　　要：收入水平、城市化率等指标是影响水产品消费量的重要因素,探讨人均GDP增长对人均水产品消费量的影响程度,有助于客观评判中国人均水产品消费量特征。借助1981—2015年相关统计数据,应用协整理论和误差修正模型等计量经济分析方法,探讨了人均水产品消费量与人均GDP之间的动态变化关系。研究结果表明:人均水产品消费量与人均GDP之间存在长期协整关系;人均GDP增长变化是人均水产品消费量增长的单向Granger原因,即经济收入增长有助于提高水产品消费量;人均GDP对于人均水产品消费量的冲击力度大于人均水产品消费量对于人均GDP的冲击力度,保持收入水平增长是促进水产品消费的重要措施。Income level and urbanization rate are the important factors influencing the consumption of aquaticproducts, to explore the impact of per capita GDP growth on per capita consumption of aquatic products isuseful to evaluate the characteristic of per capita consumption of aquatic products in China. This paperanalyzed the relationship between the per capita consumption of aquatic products and the per capita GDP from1981 to 2015 by using the method of econometric analysis such as cointegration theory and error correctionmodel. The results show that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between per capita consumption ofaquatic products and per capita GDP. The change of per capita GDP is the one-way Granger cause of percapita consumption of aquatic products, namely, the increase of economic income could help to increase theconsumption of aquatic products. The impact of per capita GDP on per capita consumption of aquatic productsis greater than the impact of per capita consumption of aquatic products on per capita GDP, and maintainingthe level of income growth is an important measure to promote consumption of aquatic products.

关 键 词：水产品消费量 人均GDP 动态关系 

分 类 号：F326.4[经济管理—产业经济]