2014年山西春播期暴雨天气过程分析  

A Rainstorm Process During Spring Sowing in Shanxi in 2014

作　　者：李新生[1] 赵桂香[1] 马严枝[1] 王思慜[1] 金磊[1] 

机构地区：[1]山西省气象台,太原030006

出　　处：《农学学报》2017年第12期101-107,共7页Journal of Agriculture

基　　金：国家气象局预报员专项"山西省春季暴雨预报失误个例对比分析"(152020010815);山西省气象局重点课题"山西霾预警模型及定量化判别技术指标研究"(152020010804)

摘　　要：为了准确预报山西春播期暴雨天气,更好地为农服务,笔者根据天气学理论,利用常规探测资料、数值预报、多普勒雷达和FY-2E红外卫星等资料,对2014年5月9—11日的暴雨天气过程进行综合分析。结果表明:500 hPa"北涡南槽"和华北"东高西低"形势是此次暴雨的有利环流背景,低空切变线和850 hPa东南风急流是主要影响系统。中低层切变线激发的中低云系直接导致强降水的发生。地面辐合线提前1~2 h出现,对进行强降水的短时临近预报有明显的参考意义。东西两路冷空气的对峙,地面辐合线的停滞;高低空急流耦合,形成高空辐散、低空辐合的垂直结构,使得上升运动持续加强;前期地面最高温度持续升高、低层暖湿平流的持续输送,均是强降水长时间持续的重要原因。The paper aims to accurately forecast the rainstorm during spring sowing in Shanxi and providebetter service for farmers. The authors comprehensively analyzed the rainstorm in May 9-11, 2014 based onthe synoptic theories, conventional data, numerical prediction, Doppler radar and FY-2E infrared satellitedata. The results showed that： north vortex and south trough at 500 hPa and low-lying from east to west in northChina on the ground were advantageous circulation backgrounds producing rainstorm; the low-altitude shearline and southeast wind at 850 hPa were the main impact systems of this rainstorm; the heavy precipitation wasdirectly responded to the low and medium clouds which were inspired by the wind shear lines on the low andmedium level of the troposphere; the ground convergence lines appeared 1-2 hours in advance, which hadobvious reference significance for the short-time forecast of rainstorm; the confrontation between the cold airfrom the east and the west, the stagnation of the ground convergence line, formed the vertical structure of theirradiated on the upper air and convergence on the lower level, which strengthened the rising motioncontinuously; the important reasons for the long duration of rainstorm were the continuous transportation of thehighest temperature from several days ago, and the continuous delivery of the warm and wet current on the low-level of the troposphere.

关 键 词：春播期 暴雨 成因 

分 类 号：P4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]