全球增暖1.5℃下东亚气候系统的响应及其情景预估  

Response and Ensemble Projection of East Asian Climate System Under The Global Warming of 1. 5℃

作　　者：江志红[1] 刘征宇[2] 乐旭[3] 郭维栋[4] 陈威霖[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京210044 [2]北京大学物理学院,北京100871 [3]中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京100029 [4]南京大学大气科学学院,南京210023

出　　处：《中国基础科学》2017年第5期29-34,共6页China Basic Science

基　　金：国家重大科学研究计划项目(2017YFA0603800)

摘　　要：巴黎协议提出将全球平均气温升幅控制在较工业化前2℃之内,并力争限制在1.5℃。因此,准确理解刻画增暖1.5℃下东亚气候系统响应机理及其精细结构,提高中国气候和极端事件预估的可靠性,设计优化增温1.5℃目标下我国碳减排方案,已成为全球变化及应对研究的核心内容和紧迫全新挑战之一。面对紧迫需求,项目拟围绕"全球增暖1.5℃下东亚气候系统的区域响应机制和精细结构、未来预估及其对我国碳减排放方案的影响"这一核心主题开展多学科交叉集成研究,并提出了4大重点研究内容,它们是:全球增暖1.5℃下年代际变化机理、预测及碳排放路径试验,东亚季风系统对全球增暖的响应及其机理,基于动力降尺度的东亚气候响应的精细结构及高敏感区,增暖1.5℃下中国气候和极端事件的集成预估及碳排放路径优化。The Paris Agreement achieves the goals of holding the increase of global average temperature to well below 2℃ above preindustrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5℃.Consequently, challenges are emerging for the global warming mitiga-tion 1）to precisely understand and depict the response mechanisms and detailed structures of East Asian cli-mate system under the warming of 1.5℃, 2）to in-crease the credibility of future projection on climatology and extreme episodes, and 3）to design the optimal scenario for carbon emission reduction in China.In re-sponse to the urgent demands,this project aims to per-form interdisciplinary researches with the main focus on＂exploring dynamic mechanisms, depicting detailed structures,and conducting future projections for East A-sian climate system under the global warming target of 1.5℃, and examining the consequent impacts on the carbon emission reduction scenario of China＂.The pro-ject comprises four main research topics： 1）decadal climate change under the global warming of 1.5℃：mechanisms,predictions,and experiments with ensem-ble emission scenarios; 2）responses and dynamic processes of East Asian monsoon system to global war-ming;3）fine structure and sensitive areas for the re-sponses of East Asian climate system;and 4）ensemble projection of climatology and extreme episodes in China under the global warming of 1.5℃ and the consequent optimization of carbon emission scenarios.

关 键 词：全球增温1 5℃ 东亚气候系统响应 情景预估 碳排放 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]