基于信息扩散技术的暴雨内涝风险评估模型  

A Rainstorm Waterlogging Risk Model Based on Information Diffusion Technology

作　　者：郭树军[1] 曾凡雷 王嘎[1] 张功文[1] 刘建伟[1] 王洪峰[1] 孙薇[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北省邯郸市气象局,邯郸056000 [2]中国气象局气象干部培训学院,北京100081

出　　处：《气象科技》2017年第6期1077-1082,共6页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：河北省科技计划项目"基于智联网技术的邯郸市城市内涝风险预警技术研究"(162754100)资助

摘　　要：针对河北省邯郸市区的道路暴雨内涝风险问题,开展了基于二维信息扩散技术及灾害风险评估理论的模型研究工作,联合气象部门、市政排水部门、社会公众等不同行业群体,收集邯郸市易涝点分布、降雨强度、积水深度、危险源及承灾体等基础数据,建立了针对易涝点的"雨强-水深-风险情景"评估模型,实现基于降雨强度估计易涝点积水深度,进而结合承灾体状况给出相应的风险情景。研究表明,本文提出的二维信息扩散道路暴雨内涝风险评估模型,对估计平原地区道路积水风险情景具有一定的实用价值。Aiming at solving the problem of urban waterlog in Handan,Hebei Province,this study established an application model based on the two-dimensional information diffusion technology and natural disaster risk assessing theory,collected the original data,including the location and waterlog history,raining intensity,danger sources and risk bearing objects of waterlogging spots which needs the supports of meteorology department,municipal drainage department and social communities.Then the assessment model is constructed,which includes the indexes of raining intensity,waterlog depth of the waterlog spots and their probably risk scenarios.The model can make the waterlog depth prediction for a certain waterlog spot with a certain raining strength input,and then can estimate the risk scenarios for each of the risk bearing objects near the spot.The study shows that the urban road waterlog risk evaluation model has a certain practical value for urban waterlog problems in plain cities.

关 键 词：风险分析 信息扩散 城市内涝 邯郸市 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]