印度洋海表热力变化对红水河天一电站流量的影响  

The impact of thermal condition of Indian Ocean on the runoff of the Hongshui River

作　　者：李树山[1] 荣艳淑[2] 唐红兵[1] 胡玉恒 徐亚男[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国南方电网电力调度控制中心,广州510623 [2]河海大学水文水资源学院,南京210098

出　　处：《气象科学》2017年第5期691-699,共9页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：南方电网科技项目(K-ZD2014-014);国家自然科学基金重点国际(地区)合作研究项目(51420105014);"十三五"国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0601504)

摘　　要：基于1936—2014年红水河天一电站流量与印度洋海表温度的相关分析,构建了热带东印度洋海温关键区指数(ETIOI)。研究表明,该指数与电站流量的关系具有显著的、持续的和稳定的反相关关系。对ETIOI的冷暖位相年合成分析表明,当ETIOI处于冷位相时,夏秋季节,南亚和东亚夏季风均较正常年份增强,激发东亚地区出现西南风和偏东风异常,有较多的水汽从印度洋、孟加拉湾和西北太平洋向华东、华南输送,使这里的云量增多,对流增强,降水增多,进而增大天一电站流量。反之,ETIOI处于暖位相时,各个季节中,华中、华南和西南地区均以北风异常所控制,使这些地区受异常的干冷气团影响,水汽输送减少,对流减弱,降水少而导致红水河天一电站流量减小。因此,热带东印度洋关键海区的海温指数可以作为影响夏秋季节红水河流域径流变化的关键因子,可为该流域的径流预报提供一种思路。Based on the relative analysis of runoff of the Hongshui River and Sea Surface Temperature （SST） of Indian Ocean, the Eastern Tropical Indian Ocean Index （ETIOI） was established. Research shows that the index has a significant, persistent and stable inverse correlation with the runoff of Tianyi hydropower station in the Hongshui River. As the ETIOI was in cold phase, the South Asia mon-soon and East Asia monsoon during the summer and autumn were stronger than usual, which triggers the southwesterly and easterly anomalies in the East Asia region, transports more water vapor from the Indian Ocean, the bay of Bengal, and northwestern Pacific to the eastern and southern China, and makes more cloud, stronger convection, and heavier rainfall, so the runoff of Tianyi became higher. However, as the ETIOI was in warm phase, the central, southern and southwestern China were con- trolled under the northerly anomalies, and dryer and cool air mass, so the water vapor supply declined, the convergence weakened, and the precipitation decreased, so the runoff of Tianyi became small. Hence, the key sea area SST index of tropical eastern Indian Ocean was as a factor to predict the runoff of Hongshui River.

关 键 词：海温 流量 印度洋 红水河 

分 类 号：P732[天文地球—海洋科学]