不安居,则不消费:为什么排斥外来人口不利于提高本地人口的收入?  

No Settlement, No Consumption: Why Depressing the Immigration Would Decrease the Wage of Native Residents?

作　　者：梁文泉 

机构地区：[1]暨南大学经济学院

出　　处：《管理世界》2018年第1期78-87,共10页Journal of Management World

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目"推动我国经济持续健康发展的基本要求;根本途径和政策选择研究"(项目编号:13&ZD015);国家自然科学基金项目面上项目"包容性的城市发展:人口规模;人力资本外部性对就业和收入的影响"(项目编号:71273055)

摘　　要：本文利用2002年CHIPS数据和2005年人口普查微观数据研究城市中移民汇款行为对本地居民收入和就业的影响。首先,移民汇款金额每增加1%,本地居民收入会降低0.088%;汇款回家的移民数量每增加1%,本地居民收入会降低0.0045%。本文利用城市移民的加权平均迁移距离作为工具变量,以上结论依然成立。而移民汇款金额和汇款回家的移民百分比对本地居民就业的影响不显著。另外,高收入移民对本地居民收入带来的负影响更大,并且对从事服务业的本地居民的影响更大。最后本文还发现,城市落户难度越高,移民越可能汇款回家并且汇款金额越高,结果越会降低本地居民的收入。本文的政策含义是,通过户籍改革,可以减少移民汇款,进而有利于提升本地居民的工资,因此户籍改革可能是个双赢的政策。Using the China Household Income Project(CHIP) in 2002 and the 2005 1% population survey, this paper investigates the impact of remittance on the wage of native workers. Firstly, the results show that 1 percentage of the remittance depress the wage of native workers by 0.088%; and the wage of native workers fall 0.0045% when 1 more percentage of worker have remittance. Considering the endogeneity of remittance, this paper uses the weighted migration distance at the city-level as the instrument variable of the remittance.The 2 SLS estimation results still present the significant negative impact of remittance on the wage of native workers, but have no effect on the unemployment. Secondly, the remittance has a larger effect on the native workers who are engaged in the service industry, and the high income migrants' remittance causes a larger effect. Finally, the exclusion of immigration in the urban areas results in more remittance, then in turn depresses the wage of native workers. The policy implication of this paper is that, the exclusion of immigration in turn depresses the wage of native workers in the urban areas, therefore Hukou reforms is a win-win policy.

关 键 词：汇款 本地居民 移民 工资 户籍 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学] F126