基于证据理论的城市防洪应急预案评估研究  

Assessment of Emergency Plan for City Flooding Based on Evidence Theory

作　　者：宋英华[1,2] 陈诚 方丹辉[1,2] 王喆 

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学中国应急管理研究中心,武汉430070 [2]安全预警与应急联动技术湖北省协同创新中心,武汉430070

出　　处：《工业安全与环保》2018年第1期38-41,64,共5页Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金(71501151);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金(15YJCZH039);湖北省自然科学基金(2016CFB467);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(WUT:2017VI021)

摘　　要：城市防洪工作的重要工具之一就是城市防洪应急预案,它的有效性直接关乎防洪工作的效率。以城市防洪应急预案为研究对象,建立其有效性评估体系。重点研究了评估体系中响应措施的合理性评估,并基于证据理论来解决评估中的不确定性问题。最后以《武汉市洪山区防洪预案》进行实例分析,验证了证据理论应用于响应措施合理性评估的可行性。One of the important tools in city flood control is emergency plan for city flooding and its effectiveness directly affects the efficiency of flooding work. Based on emergency plan for city flooding, this paper establishes its effectiveness assessment system. Research is mainly focused on the rationality assessment of the response measures of the assessment system, and the uncertainty of the assessment is solved based on evidence theory. Lastly, the ＂ Wu- han Hongshan District Flooding Control Plan＂ is analyzed as the case and the feasibility of the evidence theory applied in the rationality assessment of response measures is verified.

关 键 词：证据理论 城市防洪应急预案 评估 

分 类 号：TU992[建筑科学—市政工程] TU998.4