中国生猪价格空间溢出效应研究——基于同步系数矩阵的空间计量分析  

The spatial spillover effect of China's hog price: The spatial econometric analysis based on a synchronous coefficient matrix

作　　者：王刚毅[1] 王孝华[1] 李洪姝 

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学经济管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《农业现代化研究》2018年第1期105-112,共8页Research of Agricultural Modernization

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71303040);教育部人文社会科学基金青年项目(13YJC790142);中国博士后科学基金项目(2013M540268)~~

摘　　要：价格是反映产业运行的一个重要信号,以空间视角探究生猪价格的分布特征对协调生猪产业的区域发展具有重要的现实意义。基于我国生猪价格的省际面板数据,在测度价格同步性的基础上构建同步系数权重矩阵来弥补地理权重矩阵的不足,并根据该矩阵探究我国生猪市场间是否存在空间溢出效应。结果表明:1)湖南与海南的生猪价格存在"高值—高值"集聚效应,黑龙江与河南的生猪价格存在"低值—低值"集聚效应;2)在SLM模型中,空间相关系数值为0.620,在SEM模型中,空间自回归系数值为0.878;3)我国生猪价格的集聚效应已经打破了原有的地理集聚,而存在跨区域的空间溢出效应。基于此,进一步整合生猪市场、加大重点区域的监控、因地制宜的制定调控政策,将有助于生猪市场区域间的协调,促进生猪产业的健康发展。Price is an important market signal to reflect the operation of the industry. It is of great practical significance for the coordination of regional development of the hog industry by exploring the distribution characteristics of hog prices from the spatial perspective. Based on the provincial panel data of China＇s hog price, this paper constructed a weight matrix of synchronization coefficients to make up for the deficiency of the geography weight matrix on the basis of the measurement of the price synchronicity, and explored whether the spatial spillover effect exists in China＇s hog market according to the matrix. Results show that： 1） there is a ＂high value-high value＂ agglomeration effect in hog prices in Hunan and Hainan and a ＂low value-low value＂ agglomeration effect in Heilongjiang and Henan; 2） the spatial correlation coefficient from the SLM model is 0.620 and the spatial autoregressive coefficient from the SEM model is 0.878; 3） the agglomeration effect of the hog price in China has broken the original geographical agglomeration, and there is a cross-regional spatial effect. To promote the ccoordination among regional hog markets and the healthy development of the hog industry, this paper suggests to further integrate the hog markets, to increase the monitoring of key areas, and to develop the regulation policies according to local conditions.

关 键 词：生猪 价格集聚 溢出效应 同步系数 空间权重矩阵 

分 类 号：F304.2[经济管理—产业经济]